'There are no jobs': Support services warn unemployment crisis driving rising violence

The latest data suggests the job market in New Zealand continues to struggle with a slow recovery, with the unemployment rate remaining near its highest level in a decade. While the labor market reached its peak in October 2023 with 2.395 million filled jobs, it dipped sharply in the following months before stabilizing at around 2.35 million jobs. This figure still leaves the country approximately 40,924 jobs short of the peak, according to Simplicity chief economist Shamubeel Eaqub. The recovery has been uneven, with some sectors experiencing significant gains while others continue to face challenges. Since the job market peaked, the information media and telecommunications sector has suffered the largest percentage decline, losing 11.2 percent of its workforce, equivalent to 3,761 jobs. Over the past five years, even after adjusting for the post-pandemic surge, this sector has seen a 5.6 percent reduction in employment. Construction has also faced substantial losses, dropping by 8.4 percent or 17,249 jobs since the peak. However, the number of jobs in construction has remained relatively stable compared to 2021 levels. In contrast, several other sectors have shown signs of growth. Arts and recreation services have increased by 6.1 percent since 2023 and 16.2 percent over five years, driven largely by demand for personal health and fitness training, which saw a 112.5 percent rise between 2019 and 2025. Healthcare and social assistance jobs have also risen, increasing by 5.4 percent since 2023 and 12.7 percent over five years. Education and training employment has climbed 4.4 percent from the peak and 6.6 percent over the same period. Eaqub noted that the current recovery has not yet translated into meaningful improvements on a per capita basis. Although more hours are being worked, the job market’s rebound has only matched population growth, indicating a low-quality recovery. He emphasized that the labor market has not fully regained its pre-pandemic strength. Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold highlighted that the strongest areas of the labor market are those linked to long-term population trends, particularly in public service sectors such as health, education, and government. These fields have expanded significantly due to demographic changes and the lingering effects of the pandemic. She pointed out that these sectors have continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace since 2023, when population growth reached its peak. Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen suggested that the October 2023 job market peak was partly inflated by temporary factors, including a surge in public administration roles linked to the national election. Excluding this influence, he estimated that the actual peak in job activity occurred around March 2024. He attributed the recent growth in healthcare, public administration, and education and training to both population expansion and the ongoing impact of the pandemic, which spurred retraining efforts and increased interest in skill development among unemployed individuals. Olsen also noted that construction has undergone major shifts, with residential construction intentions reaching their highest levels in nearly half a century. This trend reflects broader economic and housing dynamics influencing the sector. As the labor market continues to evolve, the disparity between sectors remains pronounced. Some industries are adapting to changing consumer demands and demographic shifts, while others grapple with structural declines. With the recovery showing mixed results, policymakers and industry leaders will need to address the persistent gaps in employment and ensure that the labor force can sustain long-term growth. The coming months will likely reveal whether the current trajectory leads to a more robust and inclusive recovery.