Israel ahead of the election: Netanyahu and Eisenkot almost on equal footing

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz departs today for a multi-day diplomatic tour of Asia, visiting Singapore, Japan, and South Korea. The itinerary reflects Berlin’s strategic pivot toward strengthening economic ties and reducing reliance on Chinese markets. Merz is accompanied by thirty German business representatives and plans to attend high-level economic forums, including the German Business Asia-Pacific Conference in South Korea. The three host nations share Germany’s geopolitical dilemma: maintaining traditional alliances with the United States while managing deep economic integration with China. This shared vulnerability to superpower pressure aims to lay the groundwork for new partnerships among middle powers who seek to avoid becoming pawns in great power competition. Simultaneously, Israel holds its first general election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. Voters are heading to the polls to select all 120 members of the Knesset, the country’s parliament. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the nation’s longest-serving leader, faces a tightly contested race that could end his tenure. Recent polling indicates a near-perfect deadlock between the pro-government bloc and the opposition, leaving the outcome uncertain until coalition negotiations conclude. The election is widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s handling of the security failures preceding the October 7 massacre and the subsequent three-year war. In the lead-up to the vote, surveys show Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief of staff, emerging as Netanyahu’s primary challenger. Eisenkot leads his newly formed centrist party, Yashar, which was established in 2025 following his resignation from Netanyahu’s war cabinet. His departure came after eleven months in office, driven by concerns that the prime minister lacked a post-war strategy. Eisenkot, 66, campaigns on a platform of restoring judicial independence and enforcing court orders regarding mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox men. He has pledged to launch a state investigation into the events of October 7, a demand rejected by the current government. Despite his hardline stance on ending Hamas control in Gaza, Eisenkot appeals to centrist and liberal voters by emphasizing democratic values and accountability. Netanyahu’s campaign centers on security, utilizing the slogan "No Surrender." He argues that Israel has significantly weakened its adversaries in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. However, opponents hold him responsible for the intelligence and security breakdowns that allowed the October 7 attacks to proceed. The personal dynamic between the two leaders contrasts sharply. While Netanyahu is known for his bombastic style and elite background, Eisenkot is perceived as serious and uncharismatic, with limited English proficiency. The death of Eisenkot’s son, Gal, who was killed fighting in Gaza in December 2023, has resonated deeply with the public, adding a layer of empathy to his candidacy. Polling data suggests that neither side will achieve the absolute majority of 61 seats required to form a government independently. One average of recent surveys places the opposition Zionist bloc at approximately 53 seats, while the right-wing and religious alliance supporting Netanyahu holds around 50. This stalemate elevates the significance of smaller parties and Arab-led factions, which collectively average 14 seats. Although most Jewish opposition parties have historically refused to cooperate with Arab parties, the mathematical necessity of reaching 61 seats may force unexpected coalition dynamics. The right-wing bloc includes Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, and People of Israel. The opposition bloc features Yashar, alongside parties led by Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and Yair Golan. Younger voters present another variable in the election. Surveys indicate that more than 16 percent of first-time voters lean toward far-right parties, such as those led by Itamar Ben Gvir. Political attitudes have hardened particularly in communities near the Gaza border, where the trauma of the October 7 attacks remains acute. Approximately 7.3 million Israelis are registered to vote, with 38 lists competing for seats. Each list requires at least 3.25 percent of valid votes to enter the Knesset. Around half a million citizens are eligible to vote for the first time. Beyond domestic politics, the election carries significant foreign policy implications. After three years of conflict, the question of how Israel will manage relations with Palestinians and its Islamic neighbors is central to the debate. Netanyahu’s critics argue that his approach has damaged Israel’s international standing and pushed the country toward authoritarianism. Supporters counter that his leadership ensured survival amid existential threats. The outcome will likely require weeks of complex coalition building, as no single faction commands a clear mandate. Meanwhile, in Europe, the focus shifts to technological dependencies. Ukrainian forces reportedly accepted secret concessions to restore full access to the American satellite network Starlink. For ten days, Kyiv’s troops operated under restrictions on the network before functionality returned to previous levels over the weekend. Reports suggest that in exchange for unrestricted access, Ukrainian forces agreed to spare Russian refineries from strikes, aligning with demands previously raised by US President Donald Trump. This development highlights the intricate trade-offs involved in sustaining modern warfare capabilities amidst shifting geopolitical alliances. The convergence of these events underscores a broader trend of realignment in global affairs. From Berlin’s outreach in Asia to the pivotal ballot box in Tel Aviv, governments are navigating a landscape defined by reduced trust in traditional partners and increased emphasis on self-reliance. The results in Israel will provide immediate clarity on domestic direction, while Merz’s trip signals a longer-term effort to diversify European economic and security partnerships. Both scenarios reflect a move away from passive alignment with superpowers toward active engagement with regional peers facing similar strategic challenges.