Israel has the power to dominate, but not to lead the region

Israel's ability to exert military dominance over its neighbors has not translated into political or economic leadership in the Middle East, according to analyses of its current geopolitical standing. While Israel has achieved tactical successes such as dismantling Hamas’s military infrastructure, killing Hezbollah’s leadership, occupying parts of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, and significantly weakening Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, including the death of its supreme leader, these actions have not established a stable form of regional influence or consensus-based authority. Instead, they reveal a pattern of coercion rather than cooperation, suggesting that Israel's perceived "hegemony" is built on force rather than widespread acceptance. The distinction between domination and true leadership lies in the concept of hegemony, defined by Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci as the ability to secure compliance through consent rather than compulsion. This means that a dominant power must not only enforce its will but also make others believe that their subordination is natural or beneficial. Israel’s ongoing conflicts, particularly the war that began in late 2023 and continues today, have exposed the limits of its influence. Despite its military prowess, Israel lacks the broader appeal necessary to unify the region under its vision. Economically, Israel has shown strength in its high-tech sector, which accounts for approximately 17% of the country’s GDP. Exports from this sector reached a record 57% of total exports in the first four months of last year, and the nation leads globally in civilian research and development spending relative to GDP. However, these figures do not equate to the power to set the rules governing international trade or technological standards. Israel’s high-tech industry operates largely within frameworks established by other nations, particularly the United States, limiting its ability to shape global norms independently. In the realm of cybersecurity, Israel stands out as a leader, hosting R&D centers for seven of the world’s top ten companies in the field. Recent acquisitions, including Google’s purchase of Wiz for $32 billion and Palo Alto Networks acquiring CyberArk for $25 billion, highlight Israel’s expertise in this area. Yet, these achievements underscore a paradox: Israel excels within the American-dominated tech ecosystem but lacks control over the larger system itself. Outside of cybersecurity, Israel’s influence diminishes, revealing a narrow scope of global impact. Despite its technological advancements, Israel’s economic model remains heavily dependent on external factors. The Israeli shekel is not a reserve currency, and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange functions primarily as an extension of the Nasdaq. Additionally, Israel relies heavily on U.S. military and financial support, having received over $130 billion in American aid since 1948. This dependency highlights a vulnerability that undermines long-term stability and independence. The ongoing war with Iran further illustrates this point. During the conflict, Ben Gurion Airport was closed for 40 days, yet financial markets remained relatively stable. Major business transactions, such as Google’s acquisition of Wiz, proceeded even amid active hostilities. These developments suggest that Israel’s economic resilience is contingent on external support rather than internal robustness. The exodus of around 90,000 Israelis in 2025, many seeking opportunities abroad, signals growing concerns about the sustainability of Israel’s economic model. The loss of human capital poses a critical challenge. As Israeli tech firms increasingly employ workers overseas, the country risks losing its competitive edge in innovation. This trend began with the domestic judicial reform crisis in early 2023, indicating that even before the outbreak of war, there were signs of discontent among Israel’s professional class. The departure of skilled individuals reflects a deeper issue: the erosion of confidence in Israel’s future direction. While Israel maintains a strong military posture, its lack of comprehensive regional leadership is evident. The gap between military dominance and political influence continues to widen, raising questions about the long-term viability of Israel’s strategy. As the situation evolves, the focus will remain on whether Israel can adapt its approach to foster broader regional acceptance and sustainable growth.