The Iran-US conflict exposes the fragility of the world's shipping lanes

The escalating conflict between Iran and the United States has exposed vulnerabilities in global transportation and logistics systems, triggering sharp increases in shipping costs, supply chain pressures, and highlighting the growing instability in international trade. According to analysis by Xeneta, a company specializing in freight market data, the current crisis has broader implications than previous disruptions such as the pandemic-induced supply chain bottlenecks or the Red Sea crisis. The key point of contention lies in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil trade and around five percent of global container traffic pass. Its closure has caused disruptions in maritime shipping, reduced oil supplies, and triggered a rise in fuel prices, insurance premiums, and war risk surcharges. The situation is compounded by simultaneous closures of critical maritime routes, avoidance of ports, reduced available capacity, and energy supply issues. As a result, carriers have introduced multiple surcharges for fuel, war risk, and other costs, with customers often struggling to assess whether these charges are justified. The impact is particularly severe on shipments between East Asia and the Persian Gulf or Arabian Sea. Freight rates have surged over 6000 euros per standard container (TEU) within just one month, surpassing even the highest levels recorded during the pandemic. Approximately 250,000 TEUs of weekly capacity were rerouted away from the Persian Gulf, leading to additional delays and congestion primarily on links between Asia and the Middle East. Port congestion has become one of the largest logistical challenges, with major ports such as Fujairah and Sohar experiencing high occupancy rates. Other heavily burdened ports include Mundra, Nhava Sheva, Karachi, and Colombo. The situation has been further exacerbated by the temporary closure of Salalah port due to drone attacks, increasing delays in the region. Companies operating through the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or the Red Sea are among the most affected. Their responses include verifying the validity of additional costs, renegotiating contracts, redirecting shipping routes, and ensuring timely availability of transport capacity. Companies not directly present in the region are assessing their suppliers' exposure, monitoring changes on alternative corridors, and preparing various scenarios for potential worsening conditions. Analysts recommend companies review all contracts regarding fuel and war risk surcharges, compare contract prices with market benchmarks, and evaluate options for diverting part of the cargo to alternative routes. They also advise preparing new budgets for transport costs, conducting stress tests on operations, and reviewing the geographical diversification of suppliers. Particular attention should be given to products whose supply chains pass through the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal. The report underscores a long-term trend: disruptions in supply chains are no longer exceptional events but becoming a fixture of the global economy. The crisis has also impacted air freight, with restricted airspace over parts of the Middle East affecting airlines. The ongoing tensions highlight the interconnectedness of global trade networks and the risks posed by geopolitical conflicts.