Iran threatens Gulf states: Not a drop of oil will leave the Strait of Hormuz

Gulf states are seeking alternative routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions with Iran, according to reports. The strategic waterway, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has become a focal point in the region’s geopolitical struggles. With Iranian forces maintaining a tight grip over the strait, oil tankers have been forced to navigate through dangerous waters under cover of darkness, often disabling their transponders to avoid detection. Some vessels receive protection from U.S. military assets, yet threats from Tehran persist, with ships frequently coming under fire. Before the current conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the strait, about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade. Now, that volume has drastically declined, according to industry sources. The situation shows no immediate signs of resolution. Iran appears prepared for a prolonged standoff with the United States, determined to retain control over the strait and its associated leverage. Officials in Tehran have made clear that they view the strait as an inherent part of their territory, with Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi recently stating, “The Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran, belonged to Iran, and will belong to Iran.” This stance underscores the deep-seated resistance to any perceived concessions. The pressure on Gulf allies, particularly those dependent on oil exports, remains intense. Even if hostilities in Iran ease, the threat posed by Tehran’s control over the strait could remain a long-term challenge. In response, wealthy Gulf monarchies are investing heavily in infrastructure projects aimed at diversifying energy export routes. These include pipelines and storage facilities in countries such as Japan, South Korea, and India, designed to provide emergency reserves during crises. Experts caution that these efforts come with risks and high costs. According to Bachar El-Halabi, an energy market analyst based in Dubai and affiliated with Argus Media, while the volume of oil transported through the strait may never return to pre-war levels, the route itself cannot be fully replaced. “The effect can only be diluted,” he explained. Economists in the Gulf describe this as a long-term strategic vision requiring years, possibly decades, to achieve. Not all Gulf nations are equally well-positioned to implement such strategies. Analysts highlight that major players like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have better prospects for diversifying their export routes. Riyadh, for instance, is increasingly utilizing an East-West pipeline that transports roughly seven million barrels of oil daily to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Aramco CEO Yassir Rumayyan has referred to this pipeline as a “lifeline” for the kingdom. Saudi authorities are currently working to expand this capacity and are considering constructing a second pipeline dedicated to refined petroleum products. However, the reach of Iranian-backed groups extends beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Supported by Tehran, the Houthi rebels in Yemen pose a direct threat to Saudi shipping interests in the Red Sea. Their attacks using drones and missiles target both oil tankers and critical maritime chokepoints such as the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which links the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea. The Houthi have already attacked oil infrastructure in Yanbu, including the East-West pipeline, highlighting vulnerabilities even in supposedly secure routes. As Gulf states continue to seek alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, the broader implications for regional stability and global energy markets remain uncertain. The shift toward diversified infrastructure represents a significant adaptation strategy, though its effectiveness will depend on overcoming both logistical challenges and persistent security threats. Meanwhile, the continued presence of Iranian forces in key maritime corridors ensures that the issue remains central to the region's geopolitical landscape.