Iran will face a 'crushing blow' if it attacks Israel, Katz warns after security assessment

Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, warned Iran on Thursday that any attack on Israel would result in a "crushing blow," following a high-level security consultation involving senior military and defense officials. The meeting, held amid growing tensions in the region, brought together figures such as IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, Defense Ministry Director-General Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amir Baram, the Israel Air Force commander, and senior intelligence officials. The session focused on preparing for multiple scenarios, including the interception of Iranian missiles and drones, protecting the home front, and responding to potential Iranian aggression. Katz emphasized that Israel is fully prepared for any contingency, though he did not specify whether the consultation was prompted by a particular warning or intelligence alert. Intelligence assessments from Western agencies suggest that Iran may be seeking to provoke Israel into a conflict, possibly even launching an attack first. These assessments are based in part on perceived Israeli reluctance to engage in another war and the current strain in U.S.-Israel relations, which Tehran might aim to exploit. However, the reports do not name the specific Western intelligence agencies involved nor provide concrete evidence supporting the claim. Thus, the possibility of an Iranian first strike remains speculative, grounded more in analysis than confirmed operational warnings. Earlier this year, Israeli intelligence officials raised concerns about the likelihood of an Iranian attack. In May, they warned that Iran could be preparing a surprise missile and drone assault against Israel and Gulf states. This came after a similar assessment conducted by Katz and senior military commanders. In June, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir stated that the military was prepared for a potentially imminent Iranian attack, adding that Israel would respond decisively to any such strike. He had previously warned that Israel was ready to launch another "hard and deep blow" against Iran should the need arise. Meanwhile, Mossad intelligence revealed that it had thwarted an Iranian plot to infiltrate Israel and attack senior officials. The operation, orchestrated by Iran’s Intelligence Ministry, involved recruiting individuals through criminal networks. Two Iranians, Baba Mahuzadeh Haji Jafan, known as "Babak," and Mehmet Nadim Ya’it, called "Nadim", recruited French national Turut Ozkor, who used the alias "Philip." Ozkor was tasked with assembling a group of foreigners to enter Israel and conduct an attack. After discovering the plot, Mossad worked with Shin Bet and foreign intelligence agencies to expose the network. Ozkor was expelled by France, while Babak and Nadim remain in Iran. The Mossad noted that despite efforts to conceal Iran’s involvement, the operatives’ mistakes exposed their handlers within the Iranian Intelligence Ministry. Retired military officer and former intelligence official Lt.-Col. (res.) Or Horowitz claimed that Iran is hesitating to strike Israel due to fears of Hezbollah’s collapse in Lebanon. He pointed to increased U.S., Israeli, and Lebanese military activity in areas such as Froun, Srifa, and Zawtar al-Gharbiya, which are part of a tripartite initiative aimed at stabilizing the region. Horowitz argued that Hezbollah, once a formidable force, has significantly weakened and is no longer capable of posing the same level of threat to Israel. He suggested that the Lebanese Army, long inactive against Hezbollah, is beginning to assert itself with support from the United States. This shift, he believes, deters Iran from escalating hostilities, as it fears that Hezbollah’s involvement in future conflicts could lead to its downfall. The situation in Lebanon appears to be undergoing a transformation, with the Lebanese Army gaining strength and Hezbollah losing influence. Horowitz noted that the U.S. is playing a crucial role in this dynamic, providing the necessary backing for the Lebanese military to challenge Hezbollah. He expressed confidence that, with continued international support and a gradual buildup of Lebanese military capacity, meaningful progress can be made toward reducing Hezbollah’s power. This, in turn, may contribute to a broader de-escalation of regional tensions, as Iran weighs the risks of renewed conflict against the potential collapse of its proxy forces in Lebanon.