Iran's nuclear model appears to be gaining traction among U.S. allies, signaling a potential shift in global nuclear strategy. The geopolitical landscape is evolving as countries previously opposed to nuclear proliferation consider adopting Iran’s approach, maintaining the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons without actually possessing them. This so-called “nuclear latency” strategy has been a cornerstone of Iran’s policy for years, and now it seems to be influencing other nations, including Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and potentially the United Arab Emirates. The recent agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States could mark a turning point in this trend. Signed on July 22, the deal would allow Riyadh to pursue uranium enrichment, a core component of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, provided it receives congressional approval. However, the agreement excludes the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) “additional protocol,” which grants inspectors access to facilities with just two hours' notice. This omission means IAEA technicians would have limited authority over Saudi nuclear activities, restricted to locations permitted by Riyadh. This development has raised concerns in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia’s primary regional rival after Iran. The UAE recently severed banking transfers with Saudi Arabia without explanation, intensifying tensions beyond the geopolitical sphere into personal rivalries. Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and President Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE reportedly harbor mutual distrust, further complicating their strategic interactions. Both leaders operate without institutional checks, adding unpredictability to their nuclear aspirations. The UAE already possesses the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world, the Barakah facility near Abu Dhabi. While its operations are currently limited to non-enrichment technologies, internal sources suggest the country is exploring ways to acquire uranium enrichment capabilities. Such moves would likely focus on long-term goals rather than immediate weaponization, given the difficulty of producing atomic bombs covertly. Barakah itself faces security challenges, highlighted in May when a drone attack by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq damaged one of its generators. Although reactors are designed to withstand more severe impacts, such attacks can still have significant psychological, political, and economic consequences. The UAE has maintained close ties with Israel, even allowing Israeli soldiers to operate air defense systems on its territory during the conflict with Iran. This relationship extends back to historical nuclear cooperation agreements, including a secret deal with apartheid-era South Africa that included a clandestine nuclear test in the Indian Ocean in 1979. Meanwhile, Iran continues to push for compensation from the United States for alleged violations of a June agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. These disputes underscore the fragile nature of international relations involving nuclear programs. In another development, China and the United States have renewed cross-sanctions, threatening the planned visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to the U.S. These sanctions reflect broader tensions affecting global stability and complicate efforts to manage nuclear-related issues diplomatically. The potential expansion of nuclear latency strategies among U.S. allies raises questions about the future of non-proliferation efforts. With multiple countries considering enhanced nuclear capabilities, the international community faces new challenges in maintaining transparency and preventing escalation. The situation highlights the complex interplay between national security interests and global disarmament goals, as nations navigate the delicate balance between deterrence and cooperation.
★
Keep the news honest.
ObjectiveNews is reader-funded and ad-free — we show you the bias instead of hiding it. Support independent journalism for €4/month.
Become a Supporter
Spain
