'I think we'll keep it': Trump says US controls Hormuz, IDF believes blockade is 'highly effective'

US President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the United States will continue its naval blockade of Iranian ports, asserting complete control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump claimed the blockade, described by others as a “wall of steel”, is unassailable, emphasizing Iran’s lack of military capability and financial resources. He dismissed Iran’s leadership as unstable and its economy as “shot,” attributing the nation’s struggles to “fake news” and hyperinflation. The remarks followed recent tensions between the US and Iran, with Trump suggesting he might declare victory without resolving the broader dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran responded by reaffirming its stance, stating that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until its demands are met. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority, established by Iran in May to oversee shipping through the waterway, tweeted that claims of the strait being open are false. It emphasized that the closure would persist unless Iran’s conditions are fulfilled. This position aligns with broader Iranian rhetoric that frames the US blockade as an act of aggression against its sovereignty and economic interests. The US blockade has intensified economic pressures on Iran, with Israeli officials reporting that it is severely disrupting the country’s maritime trade and contributing to a deepening economic crisis. According to Israeli intelligence, the blockade has crippled Iran’s ability to import and export goods, exacerbating shortages of essential commodities such as fuel, food, and industrial materials. Experts predict Iran’s economy could contract by nearly 5.6% this year, marking its steepest decline since 1988. The strain is evident in daily life, with long lines at gas stations and soaring inflation rates exceeding 88.6%. Iranian officials, however, argue that the economic toll of the blockade is unsustainable and warn of dire consequences if it persists. Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, estimated that the blockade could cost Iran approximately $18 billion annually. He criticized the notion that Iran could simply bypass the blockade through alternative trade routes, noting that land-based transportation would significantly raise costs and reduce the viability of non-oil exports. Hariri suggested that prolonged reliance on land trade could lead to economic collapse, as the country’s total foreign trade amounts to $100 billion per year. Efforts to mitigate the impact of the blockade have included investments in infrastructure to boost truck-based trade, with Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni announcing that bilateral trade with neighboring countries has increased from $3 billion to at least $10 billion. Despite these measures, Hariri argued that land trade would only account for 20% of Iran’s import and export capacity, limiting the effectiveness of such strategies. He also warned that the economic fallout from the blockade could mirror the damage caused by previous sanctions, leading to widespread corruption and structural weaknesses in the economy. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to deescalate the situation remain stalled. Pakistan’s interior minister visited Iran on Wednesday to discuss regional security and stability, with officials indicating that talks focused on bilateral relations and mediation efforts. However, conflicting reports emerged regarding potential extensions of a 60-day ceasefire between Iran and the US. While Turkish news agency Anadolu cited Pakistani sources claiming an agreement was reached, Iranian officials denied any such discussion, accusing the US of violating the interim agreement shortly after it was signed. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that there was no basis for extending the ceasefire, as the initial agreement had already been breached. As the standoff continues, both sides face mounting domestic and international scrutiny. The US maintains its blockade, framing it as a necessary measure to counter Iranian aggression, while Iran insists that the strait remains closed until its demands are addressed. The situation threatens to deepen regional instability, with potential repercussions for global energy markets and the broader geopolitical landscape. For now, the conflict appears locked in a tense stalemate, with neither side showing signs of yielding.