Lula's approval rating among Rio voters, according to new poll

The approval rating of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva among voters in the state of Rio de Janeiro has been measured in a new survey conducted by Paraná Pesquisas. According to the findings released on July 2, 2026, there is a technical tie in the evaluation of Lula’s government among Rio residents. The survey indicates that 47.9% of respondents approve of his administration, while 49.3% disapprove. This narrow margin suggests a highly polarized political climate within the state, where opinions about the president's performance are evenly divided.

The survey further breaks down the responses into more detailed categories. Approximately 33.8% of voters in Rio de Janeiro rate Lula’s governance as either good or excellent, whereas 41.7% describe it as bad or terrible. An additional 22.9% classify the administration as merely average. These figures highlight the complexity of public perception regarding Lula’s leadership, reflecting both strong support and significant criticism.

Paraná Pesquisas collected data from 1,600 voters across 60 municipalities in Rio de Janeiro between June 29 and July 1, 2026. The research institute reported a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. The survey was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under the number BR-05371/2026, ensuring its compliance with electoral regulations and transparency standards.

In addition to measuring overall approval ratings, the survey also explored voting intentions for the presidential election. According to the results, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, by a slim margin. Specifically, 41.6% of voters in Rio intend to vote for Lula, compared to 38.6% who plan to support Flávio Bolsonaro. Other candidates receive significantly lower shares of the vote, with Renan Santos securing 1.6%, Cabo Daciolo receiving 1.3%, and several other candidates garnering less than 1.3%.

The survey also projects potential outcomes should the election proceed to a second round. In this scenario, Lula would have 44.7% of the votes, just slightly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, who would secure 44.4%. The remaining percentages reflect undecided voters, those who might opt for blank or null votes, and individuals who did not provide an opinion or were unsure of their choice.

The release of these survey results comes amid heightened political activity in Brazil, particularly in anticipation of the 2026 elections. With the country facing various domestic and international challenges, including economic pressures and geopolitical tensions, the political landscape remains fluid and unpredictable. The survey underscores the importance of understanding voter sentiment in key states such as Rio de Janeiro, which could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the presidential race.

As the campaign season progresses, the allocation of resources for political advertising will likely become a focal point. Recent reports indicate that the Lula administration has authorized over R$520 million for propaganda efforts before the election, surpassing the spending of the Bolsonaro government during the same period in 2022 by more than double. This substantial investment highlights the strategic approach being taken by the current administration to influence public opinion and reinforce its position in the upcoming electoral contest.