IEA chief expects energy crisis to persist into 2027

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, identified a pledge to raise electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35 percent by 2035 as a critical objective for the upcoming United Nations climate conference. Speaking before the gathering scheduled for next month, Birol emphasized that the initiative, known as the "35 by 35" plan, represents a pivotal moment for the global energy system. He suggested that Antalya, the Turkish Mediterranean city hosting the summit, could become permanently linked with this specific energy milestone. The proposal aims to secure an international commitment from numerous nations, many of which are reportedly prepared to join the effort immediately. The initiative was originally introduced in September by Murat Kurum, the president-designate of COP31, during Climate Week in New York. Birol noted that electricity demand is expanding at a rate three times faster than overall energy demand, signaling the start of a new era in global energy usage. He attributed this accelerated growth to the rise of artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and increased reliance on air conditioning systems. Birol stated that he had declared the arrival of the "age of electricity" approximately two years prior, observing that recent technological shifts have provided fresh momentum to this trend. Consequently, he argued that governments and energy firms must reassess their investment strategies to accommodate the rapid expansion of electrical infrastructure. In remarks delivered remotely to the Investment Summit Towards COP31 in Istanbul on October 23, Birol addressed broader economic concerns. He warned that the ongoing energy crisis would likely persist into 2027, leaving little room for optimism regarding market normalization. Birol cited disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz as factors affecting economies, agriculture, and energy supplies, compelling stakeholders to rethink short and long term strategies. He drew historical parallels to the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979, noting that previous crises spurred advancements in nuclear power and vehicle efficiency. Despite these challenges, he characterized COP31 as a golden opportunity for Turkey and the world to forge concrete agreements amidst deep international divisions. Currently, electricity accounts for 23 percent of total global energy consumption. Birol stressed that elevating this figure to 35 percent within the next decade constitutes a substantial achievement. He indicated that if dozens or hundreds of countries sign onto the pledge in Antalya, it would transmit a powerful signal to global markets and investors. To ensure accountability, plans are underway to establish an international monitoring mechanism. The governments of Turkey and Australia are expected to task the IEA with annual reporting duties. Under this framework, the agency would evaluate yearly increases in electricity’s share of global energy use and track individual national progress. Birol stated that the IEA would publicly report on which countries meet their targets and which require additional support. Birol confirmed that he has discussed the initiative with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. These consultations helped shape the common target for increasing electricity’s role in the global energy mix. He expressed confidence that the Antalya summit would yield an international declaration, ensuring the event is remembered for lasting policy goals rather than mere diplomatic proceedings. Participation levels and consensus on electrification will serve as primary indicators of the conference’s success. Birol remained optimistic about the high level of government attendance and representation expected at the meeting. The focus remains on translating political intent into binding commitments that guide future energy investments and reduce carbon emissions through greater electrification.