How Lula’s successes in Brazil may have paved the way for his presidential defeat

Brazil’s presidential election has moved toward a decisive runoff between outgoing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and far-right Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, following the first round on Sunday. Neither candidate secured an outright majority, leaving the outcome to be decided on October 25. Lula, a veteran left-wing leader and former trade unionist, trailed narrowly behind Bolsonaro, marking a surprising shift from pre-election polling that had favored the incumbent. Lula, who previously held the presidency from 2003 to 2011, has long been associated with social-democratic policies that helped lift millions out of poverty. However, his current campaign appears to have struggled to mobilize his traditional base amid a surge in support for Bolsonaro. The latter, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, has positioned himself as a potential heir to his father’s political legacy. Bolsonaro has pledged to pardon his father should he win the runoff. The race has taken an unexpected turn, with Lula’s center-left Workers' Party (PT) stunned by the results. Opinion polls had consistently shown Lula ahead of his rival in the days before the vote. With several right-wing candidates eliminated in the first round, the runoff now appears to favor Bolsonaro, although Lula still holds considerable influence. Beyond the presidential contest, the broader electoral landscape has shifted sharply to the right. Bolsonaro’s far-right Liberal Party (PL) is poised to become the dominant force in both the lower house of Congress and the Senate. This reflects a growing alignment between Brazil’s business elite and segments of the lower-middle class, which has bolstered support for the far right. Political analysts suggest that Bolsonaro continues to resonate with voters disillusioned by the status quo, despite his family’s controversies. Thomas Zicman de Barros, a researcher at Sciences Po university, noted that Bolsonaro embodies an anti-establishment sentiment, contrasting with Lula, who is increasingly viewed as part of the existing political order. Meanwhile, economic challenges have further complicated Lula’s position. Rising living costs and household debt have eroded the economic gains achieved during his last term. Felipe Krause, a former Brazilian diplomat, observed that while unemployment remains low and incomes are stable, the overall climate lacks optimism about future prosperity. With the runoff approaching, the focus shifts to how each candidate will navigate the final stretch of the campaign, with implications extending beyond the presidency to the nation’s political direction.