The rise in One Nation popularity is scary

Andrew Hastie, a rising star within Australia's Liberal Party, has signaled he may face defeat in his Western Australian electorate of Canning during the next federal election, prompting him to seek preference votes from One Nation, a move that marks a notable shift in his political stance. Despite earlier declaring he would never align with Pauline Hanson’s far-right party, Hastie now appears willing to accept preference flows from One Nation, acknowledging his own “political mortality.” His remarks have reignited debate over the extent to which the Coalition should collaborate with the minor party amid its growing influence. Hastie made these statements on Tuesday following reports that One Nation plans to establish a presence in his electorate, Canning, by fielding a strong candidate to challenge him. This follows the 2025 election, in which the One Nation candidate secured a 6.8 percent swing in the area. Speaking to News 24, formerly Sky News, Hastie conceded that the outcome would ultimately depend on the voters but expressed confidence in his ability to perform well. He emphasized that while he respects the importance of preference flows in a two-party preferred system, he does not wish to enter into a formal alliance with One Nation. Hastie’s position reflects a broader internal debate within the Coalition regarding how to respond to One Nation’s increasing electoral impact. Nationals leader Matt Canavan, known for his vocal criticism of the minor party, suggested on Monday that the Coalition must consider working with any party necessary to unseat the governing Labor party. However, acting Liberal leader Jane Hume maintained that such discussions should occur closer to the next election, emphasizing that preference deals are typically negotiated shortly before polling day. Hastie’s willingness to engage with One Nation contrasts sharply with his earlier rhetoric, where he famously stated he would prefer to be “taken out in a box” than align with the party. He clarified that his previous comments pertained specifically to formal coalitions, not informal preference arrangements. In recent months, Hastie has led the Coalition’s campaign against One Nation, particularly after giving evidence in the defamation case involving journalist Ben Roberts-Smith, whom One Nation supports ahead of his pending war crimes trial. Despite his criticisms of One Nation, Hastie acknowledged that the party has effectively tapped into public concerns over immigration and economic issues, such as high inflation. He noted that he had been engaging with former One Nation candidate Fernando Bove, recognizing the necessity of maintaining relationships even with political adversaries. One Nation has yet to officially announce its candidate for the Canning electorate in the upcoming election. The shifting dynamics have also prompted internal discussions among Coalition members. Frontbenchers like Andrew Bragg have suggested that forming a government with One Nation could be a practical option if the numbers require it. Meanwhile, Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume firmly rejected the idea of a formal merger with One Nation, stating she would oppose such a union under her leadership. One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce supported Hastie’s approach, suggesting that preference swaps were a logical step given the current political landscape. He claimed to have engaged in talks with unnamed Coalition members about the “bleeding obvious” need for strategic cooperation to counterbalance the threat posed by Labor and One Nation combined. As the next federal election approaches, the Coalition faces mounting pressure to unify its message on handling the resurgence of One Nation. With Hastie’s potential vulnerability in Canning and the uncertainty surrounding One Nation’s candidate selection, the coming months will likely see intensified efforts to secure preference deals while avoiding formal alliances. The situation underscores the complex interplay of strategy, ideology, and pragmatism shaping Australia’s political arena.