Has the army turned the page on control of western Sudan?

Sudan's military has made significant advances in the western region of Darfur, pushing back the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group in a critical area. In early August, government-aligned forces repelled two consecutive attacks by the RSF in the Bir Saliba region, located approximately 30 kilometers north of el-Geneina, the capital of West Darfur state and the RSF's last stronghold in the area. These operations mark a turning point in the ongoing conflict, with the Sudanese army gaining ground and potentially shifting the balance of power in the region. The Bir Saliba region holds strategic significance due to its road networks connecting the state capital with other key locations such as Jebel Moon and Kulbus. This infrastructure makes the area vital for both military movement and logistical support. According to General Bahr al-Din Adam Karama, the governor of West Darfur state, the region's roads play a crucial role in linking the capital with parts of the northwest. As a result, controlling Bir Saliba provides the Sudanese military with leverage in pressuring the RSF's supply lines and advancing toward el-Geneina. Government-backed forces have been attempting to disrupt the RSF's logistics by taking control of border crossings and desert routes near the Chad border. This strategy suggests a potential shift in the focus of the conflict toward el-Geneina, which remains a key objective for the Sudanese military. The RSF, however, continues to mount resistance, though recent reports indicate growing difficulties in maintaining their hold on the region. Darfur Regional Governor Minni Arko Minnawi reported that Major General Mahdi Adam, known as “Jebel Moon” and a leading figure within the RSF, was killed during clashes in western Sudan. While the RSF has not officially confirmed his death, this loss could significantly weaken their command structure and create leadership gaps in the area. Minnawi also noted that the Joint Force of the Armed Struggle Movements, a coalition of former Darfur rebel groups aligned with the Sudanese army, successfully prevented an attempted encirclement of Bir Saliba by the RSF. The RSF launched a coordinated effort to surround the Joint Force, with one unit advancing from north of Kulbus and another moving from the direction of Sileia in the Jebel Moon area. Despite these maneuvers, the RSF failed to breach the defenses of the Joint Force. Minnawi remarked that the RSF relied on the element of surprise, but their tactics did not succeed, indicating a possible decline in their operational effectiveness. Major Mutawakkil Ali Wakil Abu-Ja, the Joint Force’s spokesperson, stated that the coalition destroyed over 38 combat vehicles and captured 27 others during the campaign. He also mentioned that the commander of the attacking RSF force was killed, with remaining fighters abandoning the battlefield and leaving behind their fallen comrades. Abu-Ja emphasized ongoing efforts to secure the western axis and intensify pressure on the RSF ahead of what he described as a decisive battle for el-Geneina. Major General Othman Siraj, who oversees military operations, reported that air strikes targeting a convoy near the Chad border have further isolated the RSF and disrupted a key supply route. This action has contributed to the RSF's inability to regroup effectively, creating conditions favorable for the eventual capture of el-Geneina. Fadel Kaya, a leader within the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army, Transitional Council (SLM/TC), a Darfur rebel faction that joined the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement, observed that the Joint Force's successes suggest the RSF is increasingly focusing on retreat rather than territorial expansion. As the conflict unfolds, the Sudanese military appears to be gaining momentum in the west, with the potential to alter the dynamics of the broader conflict. The continued pressure on the RSF, combined with strategic gains and disruptions to their supply lines, points to a possible realignment of forces in favor of government-aligned troops. The outcome of the battles around el-Geneina could serve as a pivotal moment in the evolving situation in western Sudan.