Has Philippines’ Marcos missed his chance to stop the Dutertes?

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. faces mounting pressure as his former political ally and current vice-president, Sara Duterte-Carpio, solidifies her position as the leading contender for the 2028 presidential election. The move raises questions about whether Marcos has lost the initiative in shaping the future direction of the Philippines, particularly given the potential return of Duterte-style governance and a shift in the nation’s foreign policy toward closer ties with China. Duterte-Carpio announced her candidacy earlier this year, positioning herself as the heir apparent to her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, whose tenure was marked by controversial policies including drug war crackdowns and a more assertive stance in regional diplomacy. Despite facing an ongoing impeachment trial that could potentially disqualify her from running, she remains the frontrunner among potential candidates. This puts Marcos in a precarious situation, as he had previously aligned with the Duterte family through their 2022 electoral pact, which united two of the country's most influential political dynasties. Marcos indicated on August 14 that he would support a candidate in the upcoming election but refrained from specifying who that might be. He stated, “Who that is I cannot tell you because even I don’t know.” However, it is clear that Duterte-Carpio is not among the names under consideration. The rupture between Marcos and the Duterte family has led to a bitter political rivalry, with both sides vying for dominance in the nation’s political landscape. The timing of Duterte-Carpio’s announcement has created a direct challenge to Marcos’s influence over the future leadership of the Philippines. By declaring her intent to run so early, she has forced the issue of succession ahead of schedule, potentially altering the trajectory of the country’s political course. Analysts suggest that her campaign could signal a return to the more authoritarian style of governance associated with her father, which included sweeping executive powers and a hardline approach to law enforcement. The political dynamics within the Philippines have shifted significantly since the formation of the Marcos-Duterte alliance in 2022. That coalition brought together two powerful families with deep roots in Filipino politics, but it eventually collapsed due to ideological differences and personal conflicts. Now, the remnants of that alliance are being tested once again, with Duterte-Carpio emerging as a formidable opponent to Marcos’s vision for the country. Supporters of Marcos argue that his administration has focused on economic recovery and infrastructure development, contrasting sharply with the more polarizing policies of the Duterte era. Nevertheless, the growing popularity of Duterte-Carpio suggests that many Filipinos remain drawn to the legacy of her father, despite the controversies surrounding his presidency. Her campaign has been bolstered by grassroots movements and local leaders who see her as a continuation of the Duterte brand. The impeachment proceedings against Duterte-Carpio add another layer of uncertainty to the political landscape. If found guilty, she could face disqualification from holding public office, which would dramatically alter the competitive field for the 2028 election. However, legal experts believe the case is far from conclusive, leaving room for her to continue her campaign unimpeded. As the race for the presidency heats up, the stakes extend beyond individual ambitions. The outcome could determine whether the Philippines continues its current path of relative stability and reform or returns to a model of strongman rule characterized by centralized power and aggressive domestic and foreign policies. With Duterte-Carpio firmly entrenched as the leading candidate, the question remains whether Marcos can still exert influence over the nation’s political future.