Guilt by association as NSW politicians take a dive along with national parties

The latest Resolve Political Monitor reveals a troubling trend in New South Wales politics, where both major parties, Labor and the Liberal-National Coalition, are grappling with declining support, attributing their struggles to the influence of their federal counterparts. According to recent polls, nearly half of voters indicate they would consider supporting a minor party or independent candidate if an election were held today. This marks a significant shift, as the combined primary vote for Labor and the Liberals stands at its lowest level since November 2021. Despite the popularity of both party leaders, Premier Chris Minns with a net likeability rating of +18 and Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane with +8—their respective parties continue to face mounting pressure. Both parties claim their poor performance stems from the negative associations tied to their federal equivalents. Labor has pointed to the actions of federal Coalition figures, such as Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, who recently posted misleading content about Indian migration. In response, the NSW Labor government issued a public condemnation, urging the Liberals and Nationals to address these issues. However, the statement notably omitted any reference to Price's role as a federal senator from the Northern Territory, raising questions about the specificity of the criticism. Conversely, the Liberal-National Coalition has focused its attacks on Minns, linking him to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. During her recent budget reply speech, Sloane criticized Albanese’s policies on capital gains tax and alleged that the Minns government had allowed federal Labor to siphon resources away from NSW through infrastructure funding decisions. These accusations reflect a broader strategy among both parties to distance themselves from their federal allies while simultaneously trying to undermine their opponents. The connection between state and federal politics has become increasingly evident. The NSW Coalition’s primary vote has mirrored its federal counterpart since late 2024. Under former leader Mark Speakman, the party maintained a steady 38 to 37 percent primary vote, comparable to the federal Coalition’s performance under Peter Dutton. However, after Dutton’s unsuccessful federal campaign, which yielded less than 32 percent of the primary vote, the NSW Coalition’s support began to erode rapidly. By November, the vote had dropped to 28 percent, leading to Speakman’s removal as leader. Similarly, Chris Minns’s government initially benefited from the strength of the federal Labor administration under Albanese. Following the 2025 federal election, where Albanese secured re-election, Minns saw his primary vote rise to 38 percent, an impressive figure for his government. Yet, despite Minns’s increased personal appeal following the Bondi massacre, the state Labor vote has steadily declined. From a high of 37 percent in early 2025, the party’s support fell to 29 percent, then 32 percent, and again to 29 percent in subsequent polls, demonstrating the lingering impact of federal controversies. This pattern suggests that state-level political fortunes are heavily influenced by federal developments, creating a complex web of accountability and association. While individual leaders may enjoy relatively high approval ratings, the overall perception of their parties is often shaped by the actions of their federal counterparts. As the March election approaches, both sides will likely intensify efforts to separate themselves from their national allies while continuing to attack their opponents. The outcome could hinge on how effectively each party can navigate this delicate balance between independence and alignment.