Goldman Sachs maintains its bet on gold and sees it at US$ 4,900 by the end of the year: why it is key for Argentina

Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its bullish stance on gold, projecting the precious metal will reach $4,900 per ounce by year-end 2026. This forecast holds particular significance for Argentina, where gold plays a crucial role in foreign exchange earnings through mining exports. The current spot price of gold stands around $4,335 per ounce, suggesting a potential rise of nearly 13% if Goldman Sachs' prediction comes true. The investment bank had previously raised its target for December 2026 from $4,900 to $5,400 in January, but revised it downward in June due to a more restrictive U.S. monetary policy outlook. Despite this adjustment, the $4,900 projection remains unchanged, reflecting ongoing confidence in gold's performance amid global economic uncertainties. Gold's importance to Argentina’s economy stems from its dominant position within the mining sector. According to official data from the Ministry of Mining, mining exports reached $4.742 billion during the first half of 2026, marking a 74.4% increase compared to the same period last year and setting a new historical high for a six-month span. In June alone, mining exports totaled $744 million, representing a 54.6% growth over the previous year. Gold accounted for 9% of total Argentine exports in June and 9.7% for the first half of the year. Within the mining industry, gold continues to be the most significant commodity. From January to June, gold exports amounted to $2.905 billion, making up 61% of all mining-related exports in Argentina. These figures reflect a 51.2% increase compared to the same period in 2025. However, physical volumes exported declined by 25.5% year-on-year, highlighting the effect of rising international prices. Even with lower quantities sold, the value obtained increased significantly, demonstrating how higher gold prices have boosted revenue despite reduced output. This trend was particularly evident in June, when gold exports generated $386 million, accounting for 52% of total mining exports. The increase in export value was largely driven by improved international prices, according to official reports. If gold reaches $4,900 as projected by Goldman Sachs, it could provide further momentum for foreign currency inflows, assuming production and export levels remain stable. Argentina's mining sector has shown signs of diversification beyond gold. Silver exports reached $562 million in the first half of 2026, a jump of 87.9% compared to the prior year, while lithium exports hit $1.096 billion, surging by 185%. Nevertheless, gold still dominates, contributing six out of every ten dollars earned from mining exports during the first half of the year. The evolving dynamics of the mining sector also influence broader economic considerations. As one of the fastest-growing export sectors, changes in gold prices can affect both corporate balance sheets and overall foreign exchange flows. With Argentina facing increasing challenges in maintaining its primary surplus, the stability and growth of the mining sector become even more critical. The government is reportedly considering measures to allow banks to offer loans in U.S. dollars, which could potentially support domestic industries reliant on foreign currency. Such policies might help mitigate risks associated with fluctuating gold prices and ensure continued economic resilience amidst global market volatility.