Climate experts say super El Niño will negatively impact African economies
Climate experts warn that an upcoming 'super' El Niño could significantly harm African economies, causing up to $20 billion in losses and triggering mass migration. The African Development Bank estimates that affected nations may experience a 1-2% drop in GDP, with countries like Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia at particular risk. The phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, is expected to bring droughts to Southern Africa and floods to East Africa, exacerbating existing challenges such as food shortages, rising energy costs, and conflicts. The World Bank notes that agricultural losses alone could reach $330 million this year, while fishing industries face threats from warmer seas and increased storm activity. Experts caution that these effects could persist for years, compounding issues like debt and reduced international aid.
Climate experts have issued warnings that an emerging "super" El Niño phenomenon is poised to significantly harm African economies, triggering economic strain and displacement across the continent. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), the anticipated climatic event could deal a financial blow ranging from $10 billion to $20 billion to affected nations. This projection includes potential reductions in gross domestic product (GDP) by up to two percentage points in the hardest-hit countries. The AfDB's director for climate change and green growth, Anthony Nyong, emphasized that these impacts might persist for several years rather than being isolated incidents. The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, has historically brought about extreme weather conditions. In particular, it tends to cause droughts in Southern Africa while simultaneously causing heavy rainfall and flooding in East Africa. These patterns were evident during the previous El Niño period spanning 2023 to 2024, resulting in extensive crop failures, increased food prices, and unprecedented rises in coastal sea levels. The AfDB highlighted that African farmers have already incurred losses amounting to approximately $330 million this year, exacerbated by high energy costs and disruptions in the supply of fertilizers stemming from conflicts in the Middle East. Additionally, the fishing industry faces potential challenges due to rising sea temperatures and increased storm activity. Compounding these issues are ongoing conflicts, mounting debts, and reduced international aid, which collectively diminish the ability of many African countries to cope with such external shocks. Several nations are anticipated to bear the brunt of these adverse effects. The AfDB specifically noted that Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and Nigeria could experience particularly severe consequences. These countries often grapple with existing vulnerabilities, making them especially susceptible to the compounded pressures of climate-induced crises. In response to similar environmental threats, Ghana has announced a forecast of a 16% decrease in its cocoa production for the upcoming season. The nation's cocoa regulatory body attributes this decline to a confluence of factors including unpredictable weather patterns, crop diseases, and the inherent low productivity cycles of cocoa trees. Heavy rains, the looming threat of El Niño, and the spread of swollen shoot disease have severely impacted cocoa farming, particularly in the Western and Western North regions, which together account for over half of Ghana's total cocoa output. Complicating matters further, illegal gold mining activities are encroaching upon cocoa farmlands, exacerbating the situation by displacing agricultural operations. To mitigate these challenges, COCOBOD, Ghana's national cocoa authority, is implementing measures aimed at controlling the spread of disease, rehabilitating affected farms, and reintroducing subsidized fertilizers to assist farmers in recovery efforts. Meanwhile, neighboring Ivory Coast, recognized globally as the leading producer of cocoa beans, is also predicting a notable reduction in its own cocoa yields. This dual challenge from both Ghana and Ivory Coast raises serious concerns regarding the stability of the global cocoa supply chain, potentially influencing market dynamics and consumer access to cocoa products worldwide.
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