No more than six years of support for the Independence Party

In June 2026, new national polls conducted by Gallup revealed significant shifts in political support among Icelandic voters. The Independence Party, known as Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn, recorded its highest level of support since April 2020, measuring at 24.9 percent. This marks a slight increase compared to the previous measurement in April 2020 when the party had 25.1 percent support. Despite this growth, the party's lead over other major parties has narrowed slightly.

The Social Democratic Alliance, or Samfylkingin, emerged as the leading party in the poll with 26.2 percent support. However, the difference between the two main parties remains within the margin of error, indicating a very close race. Meanwhile, the Center Party, or Miðflokki, saw its support drop further, recording 15.1 percent—down about 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. This decline continues a downward trend for the Center Party, which had reached a peak in December before gradually losing ground.

The Progressive Party, or Viðreisn, maintained a steady presence with 11.4 percent support, slightly below its previous measurement of 12.4 percent. The Reform Party, Framsóknarflokkurinn, experienced a notable decrease in support, dropping from 6.7 percent to 5.3 percent—a significant decline compared to its performance in June of the previous year when it measured at 8.5 percent.

Green Left, or Vinstri græn, recorded 5.0 percent support, just shy of the 5.4 percent measured in the previous survey. While this figure is lower than previously recorded, it still provides enough support for the party to potentially secure three seats in parliament. In contrast, the People’s Party, Flokkur fólksins, remained outside the parliamentary threshold, with 4.6 percent support—an increase from its previous 4.1 percent but still insufficient to gain representation.

Support for the Socialist Party, Sósíalistaflokkurinn, showed a marked improvement, rising from 2.6 percent to 4.3 percent. This upward trend indicates growing interest in the party’s platform and policies among the electorate.

A majority of respondents expressed support for the current government, with 51 percent stating they back the ruling coalition. This represents an increase of two percentage points compared to the previous month. However, despite this overall support, the combined support for the governing parties decreased slightly, measuring at 42 percent—very close to the 41.7 percent recorded in the previous survey.

The poll was conducted between June 1 and June 30, 2026, with a total sample size of 12,102 participants, resulting in a response rate of 38.5 percent. The margin of error for the poll is between 0.5 and 1.4 percentage points. Participants were selected randomly from Gallup’s voter database, ensuring a representative cross-section of the population.

The results highlight a dynamic political landscape in Iceland, where traditional power structures are being challenged by emerging parties and shifting public sentiment. The Independence Party’s continued rise suggests a strong base of support, while the Social Democrats' slight edge could indicate a potential shift in the balance of power. The declining fortunes of the Center Party and Reform Party reflect broader dissatisfaction with their policies and leadership.

The Green Left’s ability to maintain a foothold in the polls, even without parliamentary representation, underscores the growing influence of environmental and social issues in Icelandic politics. Similarly, the Socialist Party’s increase in support signals a possible realignment of voter preferences towards more radical left-wing policies.

As the political scene evolves, these changes will likely have implications for future elections and policy directions. With the current government enjoying majority support, yet facing challenges from both sides of the spectrum, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether the existing political order holds firm or undergoes significant transformation.