Finland's Israel policy might be driven by upcoming elections, expert tells 'Post' - interview

Finland appears to be pursuing a dual-track approach toward Israel, balancing criticism of the country’s military actions in Gaza with increased defense collaboration, according to a political analyst. This apparent contradiction has raised questions about the motivations behind Finland’s evolving stance, particularly amid the nation’s upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for April 2027. In late August 2026, Finland announced it would not renew its multi-year funding agreement with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). The agreement, set to expire at the end of the year, had previously been suspended in January 2024 before being reinstated. According to Finnish Foreign Trade Minister Ville Tavio, the decision does not reflect a reduced commitment to humanitarian aid in Palestinian territories. Instead, Finland plans to redirect support to other international bodies such as the World Food Programme. Separately, it was confirmed that Finland has extended a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for defense cooperation with Israel through 2034. The agreement, initially approved in early 2024 by Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen, includes provisions for joint research and development, collaboration, and procurement of defense equipment. Notably, Finland acquired Israel’s David’s Sling air defense system in 2023 for €316 million. Dr. Timo Stewart, a Finnish political scientist and senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, suggested that Finland’s shifting positions may be influenced by internal political dynamics ahead of the upcoming elections. He noted that Tavio, who oversees development cooperation funds, belongs to the right-wing populist Finns Party, which is part of the ruling coalition. The party has historically criticized UNRWA and has expressed alignment with Israel’s interests. Tavio had previously frozen UNRWA funding in 2024, citing concerns over potential misuse of resources. However, after assessments indicated sufficient confidence in the agency’s operations, the funding was briefly restored. Now, as the current agreement nears expiration, Tavio has opted not to extend it for another five years. This move contrasts with statements from Finland’s foreign minister, Elina Valdemar, who has consistently advocated for more balanced approaches to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Stewart emphasized that such divergences are rare in Finnish foreign policy, typically characterized by broad consensus. However, he pointed out that issues related to Israel and Palestine have been an exception within the current government’s tenure, citing debates over recognizing a Palestinian state, which were ultimately resolved against recognition. According to Stewart, the Finns Party seeks to reinforce its identity as a party with distinct policies, emphasizing anti-immigration stances. Given the widespread unpopularity of UNRWA among the party’s base, the decision to cease funding aligns with its strategic goals. Meanwhile, public sentiment in Finland regarding the Israel-Palestine issue seems to be undergoing a shift. While specific data on changing attitudes is limited, analysts suggest that growing awareness of the complexities surrounding the conflict could influence future policy decisions. The simultaneous pursuit of closer defense ties with Israel and the withdrawal of support for UNRWA underscores the multifaceted nature of Finland’s engagement with the region. As the country moves forward, the interplay between domestic politics and international relations will likely continue to shape its diplomatic strategies.