Factcheck: No, Europe is not having its ‘quietest’ year for wildfires

In early July 2026, a wave of wildfires swept through parts of southern and central Europe, prompting widespread concern and displacement. Despite this, certain individuals and groups have attempted to downplay the severity of the situation by citing misleading data suggesting that 2026 is the “quietest” year for wildfires in Europe since 2012. This claim, however, is based on flawed interpretations of global wildfire datasets that include Russia and other regions with vastly different climatic conditions. The misleading narrative gained traction after prominent climate sceptics and rightwing commentators, including Dr Matthew Wielicki and Matt Ridley, shared visualizations that suggested a decline in European wildfires. These charts were drawn from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which defines “Europe” to include all of Russia. As a result, the dataset is heavily influenced by Russia's fire activity, which typically accounts for 80–90% of the total area burned within the GWIS-defined Europe. In 2026, Russian wildfires have been significantly below historical averages, creating a distorted view of the overall trend. France, meanwhile, has recorded its highest level of wildfire damage so far in 2026, according to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Spain is also facing one of its worst wildfire seasons on record. The fires have forced over 350,000 people to evacuate their homes in south-western Europe, with officials warning that an approaching heatwave could exacerbate the crisis in the coming days. The misleading data was further amplified by influential figures such as Richard Tice, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Bjorn Lomborg, who have long promoted climate scepticism. Matt Ridley, a former Conservative peer and member of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, tweeted a chart from Our World In Data that falsely portrayed 2026 as the lowest year for wildfires in Europe since 2012. His post was widely shared by members of the UK’s political and media circles, despite the clear flaws in the methodology used to generate the visualization. Dr Calum Cunningham, a researcher at the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre, has criticized these claims as “highly misleading.” He explains that the GWIS dataset aggregates fire activity across a vast and climatically diverse region, making it difficult to draw accurate conclusions about specific areas. Cunningham notes that a quieter season in Russia does not necessarily reflect a decrease in wildfire activity in Western Europe, where extreme weather conditions have led to unprecedented levels of burning. Efforts to provide more accurate assessments have come from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), which tracks wildfires specifically within the European Union. According to EFFIS data, the area burned in the EU during the first half of 2026 is second only to 2022 for this period. This suggests that the current wildfire season is far from being the “quietest” in recent years. As the summer progresses, authorities continue to monitor the situation closely, with emergency services working around the clock to contain blazes and assist affected communities. With temperatures expected to rise further, the risk of additional wildfires remains high, underscoring the need for continued vigilance and preparedness.