‘Exceptional event’: World braces for ‘supersized’ El Niño

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning that an exceptionally strong El Niño event is now fully developed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to intensify into a "very strong" El Niño over the coming months. The phenomenon, which is projected to last until February 2027, is anticipated to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat across vast regions. The WMO stated that almost all land areas are likely to experience above-normal temperatures during the coming months, with the event marking the first time an El Niño/La Niña update has been issued with near-unanimous confidence. The El Niño, which typically occurs every two to seven years, is currently developing into what experts describe as one of the most intense on record. According to the UK Met Office, the event could be the largest El Niño in living memory and possibly the most significant since the 19th century. As a result, 2027 is considered "very likely" to surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific have reached levels up to 3°C above normal, with subsurface temperatures exceeding 8°C in certain areas, an unprecedented level of heat storage that underscores the event’s strength. The WMO emphasized that the current El Niño is occurring against the backdrop of an already warmed planet, with ocean temperatures remaining unusually high. While El Niño itself is a natural climate phenomenon, its effects are compounded by ongoing global heating. The organization has launched an extensive international preparedness and early-warning initiative, collaborating with national meteorological services, UN bodies and humanitarian organizations. The focus is on mitigating risks to agriculture, food security, water resources, public health and energy systems, as well as addressing the humanitarian consequences of extreme weather events. In Ireland, the impact of the El Niño is expected to be complex. Climatologist Paul Moore of Met Éireann noted that the phenomenon influences the broader atmospheric drivers affecting the country. Although the overall trend suggests a milder and wetter autumn, the exact nature of the weather will depend on how the El Niño interacts with other climate factors. Northern Europe is projected to experience slightly warmer and drier conditions, while southern regions face a higher chance of above-average temperatures and increased rainfall. Ireland, located in a transitional area, may encounter conditions that are neither fully aligned with either pattern. The WMO has expressed confidence that the El Niño will peak by the end of 2026 and maintain its influence throughout 2027. The organization stressed that the event could disrupt weather patterns globally, leading to extreme conditions in various regions. For instance, parts of Africa, particularly eastern and southern regions, are expected to face heightened risks of drought, heat and flooding, with millions of children exposed to adverse conditions. In Central America, the WMO warned of potential hunger crises due to worsening droughts, with countries like Honduras, Panama and El Salvador issuing drought alerts. The United Nations secretary-general, António Guterres, underscored the gravity of the situation, stating that the combination of El Niño and climate change is pushing the planet into an unprecedented "danger zone." He called the current event "supersized," emphasizing that scientific evidence leaves no room for uncertainty regarding the escalating risks. Similarly, WMO chief Celeste Saulo highlighted the need for urgent action, noting that the organization has never mobilized such a large-scale effort in its 50-year history. Across the globe, the El Niño is expected to trigger a range of extreme weather scenarios. In the southern United States and parts of Southeast Asia, heavy rainfall and flooding are anticipated, while regions like Australia, Indonesia and the Amazon Basin may suffer from prolonged droughts. Meanwhile, the southern United States and parts of East Africa could see increased precipitation, contributing to both agricultural challenges and flood risks. In Europe, the effects remain somewhat unpredictable, though the continent is likely to witness a mix of temperature anomalies and varying rainfall patterns. The WMO continues to monitor the event closely, with experts predicting that the elevated ocean temperatures and atmospheric shifts will persist well beyond the traditional El Niño cycle. With the potential for widespread disruptions, the organization is urging governments and communities to prepare for the possibility of intensified climate-related hazards. As the El Niño progresses, its influence on global weather systems is expected to grow, reinforcing the urgency of adaptive strategies to manage its multifaceted impacts.