Ex-Mossad official: Turkey unlikely to risk military clash with Israel despite Erdogan's ambitions

A former senior Mossad counterterrorism official has stated that a military conflict between Israel and Turkey is highly improbable, despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s long-term strategic goals. In an exclusive interview with 103FM, Oded Eilam, who previously led Israel’s counterterrorism division, emphasized that neither side currently seeks a direct military confrontation. Eilam noted that Erdogan’s vision for regional influence does not include immediate escalation with Israel. “Neither side is interested in a military confrontation, certainly not at the present time,” he said. “That is completely contrary to Erdogan’s outlook and to his strategy of creeping annexation.” According to Eilam, Erdogan’s approach involves gradual territorial gains across regions such as Libya, Somalia, and parts of Africa, including Gaza. However, he argued that these ambitions do not necessitate a direct clash with Israel, which he views as a major regional power. Eilam further explained that while Erdogan appears to engage in provocative actions, he is cautious about provoking Israel. “Erdogan is not eager for battle. He often dances a tango, two steps forward and one step back,” Eilam said. “Maybe he is tap dancing, but he recognizes Israeli power.” He pointed out that Turkey’s growing naval capabilities in the Mediterranean could pose a challenge to European interests, particularly in relation to Bulgaria and Greece. In addition to military considerations, Eilam highlighted economic and political factors influencing Turkey’s relationship with Israel. He mentioned that Turkey controls the flow of refugees into Europe and receives substantial financial incentives to manage this issue. “He also controls the gateway for refugees, and he receives on the order of $200 million to $250 million a year just to keep them with him, so that they do not flood into Europe,” Eilam said. “The Europeans are terrified, and for the Americans, it is convenient.” Eilam also addressed the role of U.S. officials in shaping the dynamics between Turkey and Israel. He expressed concerns about the rhetoric emanating from the United States, specifically from Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey. “We need to be wary of all the inflammatory rhetoric of Erdogan’s representative in Washington, whose name is Tom Barrack,” Eilam said. “He tells us that Turkish planes were in the air. All that’s missing is an entire Hollywood movie.” Eilam concluded by emphasizing the importance of maintaining clarity and firmness in dealing with Turkey. “Israel did well to draw a clear line in the sand for the Turks,” he said. “There is a very blatant violation of the status quo here by the Turks. This is an attempt to bring in an advanced system that would have disrupted Israeli Air Force flights to Iran.” Eilam’s remarks come amid ongoing tensions between Israel and Turkey, particularly following recent Israeli strikes in Syria. These actions, according to Eilam, were necessary to establish boundaries and prevent Turkish interference in Israeli operations. Despite the complex geopolitical landscape, Eilam maintains that a direct military confrontation remains unlikely, given the mutual interest in avoiding large-scale conflict.