EU plans new start in relations with Serbia ahead of elections

The European Union is preparing to shift its approach toward Serbia as the country faces upcoming elections following recent legislative changes that have drawn international attention. According to reports from Politico, the EU is considering ways to reward Serbia for softening controversial laws that had previously raised concerns about judicial independence and anti-corruption efforts. These changes were made after the Serbian parliament approved amendments to contentious legal provisions, which had been criticized by international legal experts for potentially undermining the judiciary’s autonomy and weakening the fight against organized crime.

The EU has been actively engaged in discussions regarding Serbia's progress in reforms and its alignment with European standards. Four officials familiar with the plans of the European Commission indicated that Brussels is now seeking methods to encourage Belgrade to continue with necessary reforms while preventing it from renouncing its commitments towards EU membership. However, these plans might be delayed due to President Aleksandar Vučić's announcement over the weekend that he intends to resign and call early parliamentary and presidential elections, making this period politically sensitive.

During a summit in Montenegro earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with Vučić alongside French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The discussions centered around the possibility of rewarding Serbia if it abandons laws inconsistent with EU standards. This meeting highlighted the potential for positive developments in Serbia-EU relations, especially given the recent legislative adjustments.

The Venice Commission, a leading advisory body within the Council of Europe, along with the EU, warned that these laws could have alarming effects on democracy and institutions in Serbia. They expressed concerns that such legislation might lead to the replacement of prosecutors focused on organized crime and suppress investigations into corruption. These warnings were echoed by officials who emphasized the importance of maintaining Serbia's engagement in the accession process despite the likelihood of its immediate EU membership.

Serbia has been an official candidate for EU membership since 2012, but there are growing concerns that it might lose access to more than a billion euros in financial aid due to democratic backsliding and close ties with Russia. The EU remains the largest provider of financial assistance to Serbia, having allocated over 586 million euros in non-repayable funds between 2021 and 2024, with an additional 1.5 billion euros available contingent upon implementing reforms. Since 2000, Serbia has received over seven billion euros through EU funds and investments.

In the coming weeks, Serbia aims to open the third of six negotiation clusters in its accession talks with the EU. Serbia's ambassador to the EU and chief negotiator, Danijel Apostolović, stated that adopting judicial laws aligned with the Venice Commission's recommendations would mark a significant turning point in Serbia's accession process. The third cluster covers competitiveness, economic growth, industrial policy, and alignment with the EU customs union, considered less politically sensitive compared to other areas of negotiation.

Despite these aspirations, diplomats from two major EU member states remain skeptical about Serbia's progress. One diplomat noted that correcting past mistakes represents only a minimum requirement and does not automatically qualify Serbia for special rewards. As the political landscape in Serbia becomes increasingly complex with Vučić's impending resignation, the future trajectory of Serbia-EU relations remains uncertain, highlighting the need for continued dialogue and cooperation.