Ethiopia's ruling party retains parliamentary majority in election marred by insecurity

Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party appears poised to secure a decisive victory in the June 1 national elections, according to early counts released by the National Election Board of Ethiopia. This outcome would solidify Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s continued leadership and extend his influence over the nation’s political landscape. The preliminary tally indicated that the Prosperity Party had secured 23 out of 40 verified seats in the House of Peoples' Representatives, signaling a strong showing for the ruling party. With a total of 501 seats up for grabs in the legislative body responsible for electing the prime minister, the early results suggest a clear path toward dominance for Abiy’s faction.

As the final results were announced, the Prosperity Party claimed 438 of the 501 available seats in the House of Representatives, marking a significant parliamentary majority. This result positions Abiy to seek re-election for another five-year term when the new parliament convenes in October. However, the election process was marked by several challenges, particularly in the Oromia and Amhara regions, where security concerns led to the closure of 143 polling stations. These closures were attributed to ongoing conflicts involving the Fano armed group and the federal government in Amhara, alongside tensions with the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia. The instability in these areas has complicated efforts to ensure a smooth electoral process.

Despite the disruptions, voter turnout reached an impressive 94%, with over 50 million eligible voters participating in the election. Ethiopia’s population is estimated at around 130 million, meaning nearly half of the populace cast their ballots. The exclusion of the Tigray region from the election process further highlights the deepening divisions within the country. For the past six years, Tigray has lacked federal representation due to the protracted conflict between federal forces and regional actors, leaving its citizens without a direct voice in the national legislature.

The National Election Board of Ethiopia emphasized its commitment to maintaining institutional neutrality throughout the electoral process, stating that all activities were conducted in accordance with legal frameworks and electoral guidelines. International observers from organizations such as the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development were present during the election, although their reach was largely limited to Addis Ababa. Critics have pointed out that these observer missions could have done more to monitor the election nationwide, potentially enhancing transparency and credibility.

Opposition figures expressed skepticism regarding the fairness of the election, citing a climate of fear and intimidation that allegedly hindered their ability to compete effectively. Yitayal Assefa, an opposition candidate from the All Ethiopia Unity Party, acknowledged that his participation aimed to assert his voice rather than achieve victory, given the perceived imbalance in favor of the ruling party. Merara Gudina, an academic and opposition leader who opted not to take part in the election, described the process as a "sham" and warned that the outcome could exacerbate existing instability in the country.

Abiy’s administration faces accusations of human rights abuses against critics and journalists, despite earlier promises of promoting democracy and peace. His tenure has been marked by both achievements, such as resolving the longstanding border dispute with Eritrea, and ongoing tensions, including current disputes with Eritrea over support for rebel groups and territorial issues concerning the Red Sea port. The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Abiy in 2019 for his role in reconciling relations with Eritrea contrasts sharply with the current geopolitical friction between the two nations.

With the Prosperity Party securing a substantial parliamentary majority, the focus now shifts to the formation of the new parliament and the subsequent re-election of Abiy. The implications of this result remain uncertain, as the political landscape continues to evolve amid internal strife and external pressures. The coming months will likely see increased scrutiny of the government’s actions and the potential responses from both domestic and international stakeholders.