Ethiopia and Eritrea: Can diplomacy stop the war?

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced on Friday the appointment of an interim government for the northern Tigray region, a move designed to stabilize the area and prepare for local elections within six months. The declaration followed a recent surge in hostilities between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian National Defense Force. In a statement released on the social media platform X, Ahmed stated that the people of Tigray must break free from a cycle of conflict to secure peace, self-administration, and development. His office indicated that repeated efforts to resolve the dispute had failed because the TPLF leadership did not desire peace, instead initiating what the government described as a devastating war. The interim administration will govern the region for the next six months. According to the prime minister’s office, the caretaker government has ten primary tasks, including holding free and fair elections, returning displaced communities, restoring government services, and protecting basic infrastructure. Following a cabinet decision, the federal government announced the appointment of five officials to lead the region, including Shishay Amare, who serves as the new mayor of the regional capital, Mekelle. Amare told the French news agency AFP that the priority is to create conditions for elections by ensuring peace and stability throughout Tigray. He expressed confidence that this goal would be achieved within the planned timeframe. Other immediate priorities include reopening markets and securing humanitarian aid for those in need. The political crisis escalated significantly in September when the TPLF, allied with six other armed groups, launched an offensive against the federal government. This rebellion marked a sharp reversal of the peace process that had ended a brutal civil war between 2020 and 2022. Federal forces subsequently pushed the rebel alliance back, reclaiming control of key strongholds, including Mekelle. Reports indicate that TPLF fighters surrendered in Mekelle in early October after suffering defeats in the Afar region. Additionally, Eritrean troops that had entered Tigray during the conflict withdrew following heavy drone strikes by Ethiopian armed forces. The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades until Abiy took office in 2018, has not issued an official response to the appointment of the interim government. However, TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa told AFP that the region cannot be ruled by puppets of what he called a genocidal regime in Addis Ababa. Earlier statements from the TPLF via Facebook denounced Tigrayans collaborating with the federal government as traitors, warning that such individuals would face accountability and public judgment. The rebel group had previously declared in April that it was retaking control of the region, effectively rejecting the central government and the 2022 peace agreement. The renewed fighting has strained relations between Ethiopia and its neighbor, Eritrea. Although the two countries signed a peace agreement in 2018 and Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian forces during the 2020 to 2022 war, diplomatic ties have deteriorated sharply. Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of supporting the TPLF and maintaining a military presence on Ethiopian soil. Eritrea denies these allegations, asserting that Ethiopia is using the conflict to justify military action aimed at seizing control of the Red Sea port of Assab. The Ethiopian government has also accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting the rebel alliance, though both nations have denied these claims. Background on the region reveals deep-seated instability. The 2020 to 2022 civil war resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths due to combat, famine, and the collapse of healthcare systems, according to estimates cited by the African Union referencing researchers from Ghent University. Despite the 2022 peace deal, implementation issues remain unresolved. Tsedale Lemma, editor of the Addis Standard magazine, noted that the current danger stems from years of unresolved tensions and the failure to fully implement the Pretoria Agreement. She argued that international actors underestimated the risk of renewed war and failed to monitor the peace process effectively. Humanitarian challenges persist in the region. Approximately one million people remain displaced as a result of the previous conflict. The United Nations refugee agency reported that around 750,000 Tigrayans were still internally displaced as of February. The region also faces drought conditions linked to El Niño. Political disputes continue regarding territorial claims, specifically over Western Tigray, which is claimed by both the Tigray region and the neighboring Amhara state. The interim government faces the task of managing these complex political and territorial conflicts while attempting to restore normalcy. The broader context includes concerns about regional spillover effects in the Horn of Africa. Analysts fear that unrest could extend beyond Ethiopia’s borders, affecting other powers vying for influence in the area. The TPLF’s offensive was part of a broader coalition of armed groups opposing the federal government. While federal forces have regained control of major urban centers, the security situation remains volatile. The interim administration’s mandate focuses on repairing damaged infrastructure and facilitating the return of displaced populations, aiming to lay the groundwork for democratic processes amidst ongoing geopolitical friction.