Poll in Brazil: Lula ahead of Bolsonaro (h) by 6 points in first round and 4 in ballot

A new survey released by Brazil's Datafolha Institute suggests President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a six-point lead over his main rival, former president Jair Bolsonaro’s son Flávio Bolsonaro, in the first round of the October 4 presidential election. If the race proceeds to a runoff, Lula would maintain a four-point advantage, according to the poll, which was published by Folha de S.Paulo. The findings indicate a tight contest ahead of the vote, with both candidates still in contention for the presidency. The survey, conducted through face-to-face interviews with 2,058 individuals aged 16 or older between August 18 and 19, 2026, covered 128 municipalities across Brazil. It estimates a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. The data was officially registered with Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court under the code BR-04496/2026. According to the results, Lula received support from 39 percent of respondents, while Flávio Bolsonaro secured 33 percent. This gap has narrowed slightly since June, though Lula has remained the frontrunner throughout the campaign. In the hypothetical second-round scenario, Lula would secure 47 percent of the votes compared to 43 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro. This result underscores the potential for a competitive runoff, particularly for right-wing forces aligned with Bolsonaro, who see this as a scenario they could potentially reverse. Other candidates trailing behind include Ronaldo Caiado, the former governor of Minas Gerais, with 5 percent, Renan Santos with 4 percent, and Romeu Zema, the current governor of Minas Gerais, with 3 percent. Six percent of respondents indicated they would not vote, and another 4 percent stated they were unsure of their choice. Lula’s campaign kicked off last Sunday with a rally outside São Paulo, marking the beginning of his efforts to secure a fourth term in office. His continued dominance in polls has positioned him as the favorite to win again, despite growing challenges from opponents on the right. The survey highlights the shifting dynamics within Brazilian politics, where traditional power structures are being tested by emerging figures and evolving voter preferences. The political landscape in Brazil has been marked by intense polarization, with Lula representing the left-wing Workers' Party (PT) and Bolsonaro’s allies aligning with conservative and nationalist agendas. The narrowing gap in the polls reflects a broader trend of uncertainty among voters, many of whom remain undecided or skeptical about the direction of the country. Analysts suggest that the final weeks before the election will be critical, as campaigns intensify and key issues such as economic stability, security, and social policies take center stage. The survey also reveals a fragmented opposition, with multiple candidates vying for attention but none posing a serious threat to either Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro. This fragmentation could benefit Lula, whose broad base of support includes urban populations, labor unions, and progressive groups. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro faces the challenge of uniting the diverse factions of his father’s legacy while addressing concerns about his own leadership capabilities. As the election approaches, both campaigns are expected to ramp up their outreach efforts, focusing on key swing states and demographics. The outcome of the first round will determine whether a runoff is necessary, setting the stage for a decisive battle in the final stretch of the electoral process. With just 43 days remaining until the vote, the political stakes have never been higher, and the results of this poll serve as a snapshot of the current state of the race.