In June 2024, the walls have been breached: this right-wing electorate, older and educated, tried by the RN

In June 2024, the sea walls along the French coast collapsed under the pressure of rising waters, marking a dramatic shift in political dynamics within France. This event has been interpreted as a turning point for the far-right electorate, particularly among older, more educated voters who have increasingly aligned with the National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen. According to a recent study published by the Fondapol, the evolution of this voter base over the past two presidential terms, under President Emmanuel Macron, has shown a steady rise in support for the RN, culminating in a symbolic breakthrough during the European elections of 2024. The analysis was conducted by Pascal Perrineau, a political scientist and former professor at Sciences Po. His findings reveal a transformation in the party's electoral fortunes. Under the leadership of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Front National (FN) initially struggled to gain traction, achieving modest results such as 10.95% in the 1984 European elections and 14.4% in the 1988 presidential race. However, the party gained momentum after 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen secured a historic second-place finish in the presidential election with 16.9%. Despite this success, the FN faced setbacks in subsequent years, including a drop to 10.4% in the 2007 European elections. With the arrival of Marine Le Pen at the helm, the party began a period of consistent growth. In 2012, the RN achieved 17.9% in European elections, followed by 21.3% in 2017 and 23.2% in 2022. The party’s influence reached new heights in 2024, when it surpassed the symbolic threshold of 30% in European elections, securing 31.4% of the vote. This was further reinforced in the early legislative elections, where the RN and its allies, including the Union des Démocrates et Indépendants (UDI), captured 33.2% of the vote in the first round. This surge in support has been attributed to several factors, including the growing concerns of older, better-educated voters regarding immigration, economic stability, and national identity. These demographics, traditionally associated with the right-wing, have become more politically active and have increasingly turned their attention toward the RN as a viable alternative to mainstream parties. The party’s messaging, which emphasizes sovereignty, security, and cultural preservation, has resonated strongly with these groups. Perrineau notes that while the RN has evolved from a protest movement into a major political force, its appeal continues to expand. The party’s ability to adapt its rhetoric and strategy has played a crucial role in attracting new supporters. Additionally, the increasing polarization of French politics has created space for the RN to consolidate its position, especially in regions where traditional left-wing parties have weakened. The impact of this shift is evident in local elections as well. While the municipal elections were not fully covered in the study, preliminary data suggests that the RN has made gains in certain areas, particularly in rural and coastal communities where concerns over environmental degradation and border control are heightened. The collapse of the sea walls in June 2024 has been cited by some analysts as a metaphor for the broader societal pressures facing France, reinforcing the perception that the country is at a crossroads. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the RN’s future will depend on its ability to maintain its current trajectory while addressing the complex challenges of governance and public trust. With the upcoming legislative elections set to take place, the party faces both opportunities and risks in solidifying its position as a key player in French politics.