In Ibagué there are not fewer children, but fewer public schools

In Ibagué, the number of children has not decreased, it is the public schools that have been shrinking faster than the population of children. According to data released by the Education Secretary of Ibagué following a formal request, the city’s public school system is losing students more rapidly than the overall child population is declining. This trend highlights a growing disconnect between educational infrastructure and the needs of young learners. Colombia recorded its lowest birth rate in a decade in 2024, with a 32.7% drop compared to 2015, according to the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane). However, this demographic shift does not fully explain the sharp decline in student enrollment within the public education system. The data reveals that while fewer children are being born, the proportion of children enrolled in primary school, specifically those transitioning from early childhood to first grade, is plummeting. This indicator, known as net coverage, measures the percentage of children in the correct age group for their grade relative to the total number of children of that age in the city. It already accounts for the decline in births, yet the numbers continue to fall. Net coverage in transition, from preschool to first grade, dropped from 91.66% in 2020 to 75.15% in 2026. Even the broader measure, gross coverage, which includes late enrollments, fell from 115.48% to 93.95%, representing a loss of nearly 21 points. These figures suggest that the public school system is struggling to retain students, even as the general child population continues to shrink. The situation becomes even more alarming when comparing official versus private schooling. Between 2020 and 2026, official secondary school enrollment in Ibagué declined by 18.7%, while non-official enrollment in private institutions increased by 12.2%. In middle school, the gap widened further: official enrollment dropped 13.9%, while non-official enrollment rose 16%. These groups of students were born in the same years, live in the same city, and age at the same pace. If the decline in births were the main factor, both sectors should have been affected equally. Instead, the public sector bore the brunt, while private institutions saw growth. When all levels of education, including preschool, primary, secondary, and high school, are considered, Ibagué now has 12,605 fewer students than in 2020. A total of 11.6% of the entire education system has disappeared over six years, and much of this exodus has not gone to private schools but rather to nowhere at all. The public school system is not merely losing students, it is losing them entirely. The Education Secretary was directly asked how many children, adolescents, and young people in Ibagué are currently outside the education system and why they left. The response, phrased in bureaucratic language, stated that the department does not have consolidated data in the requested terms. Translated more plainly, this means Ibagué lacks accurate information on how many children have left the system and for what reasons. The only figure provided was the adult illiteracy rate, which measures adults who never learned to read, not children who recently stopped attending classes. With this, the question was deemed answered. This lack of transparency raises serious concerns. The same department that can report net coverage in primary schools to two decimal places has no approximate count of how many children of school age are not registered anywhere. It does not know whether these children have left to work, migrated, or simply went unnoticed after the pandemic. While it audits desks down to the last decimal point, it has no idea who is missing or why. This is the gap.