CO2 emissions and the warming of the Mediterranean: why climate change is amplifying the magnitude of global warming

Two years after the deadly flood that claimed 233 lives in Valencia province, another severe storm has struck the region, this time affecting the southern coast and parts of northern Alicante. According to meteorological agencies, rainfall records have been set once again, particularly in areas such as Gandia, Oliva, and Pego, with significant flooding, property damage, hundreds of rescues, and three fatalities, two in Oliva and one in Sagunto. According to Avamet, the highest rainfall was recorded in the village of Forna (L'Atzúbia), where up to 720 mm of rain fell, followed closely by the neighboring town of Pego, which received 693 mm. These volumes represent nearly the entire annual average rainfall concentrated within just 48 hours. In the Safor area, Oliva approached 650 mm (643 mm), while towns such as Real de Gandia (615 mm) and Barx - La Drova (602 mm) exceeded the 600 mm threshold. Studies conducted following the October 29, 2024, flood confirm that climate change increases the intensity and force of these phenomena by approximately 15% to 20%, according to José Ángel Núñez, head of climatology at the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET). He explained that climate change is not a matter of beliefs or fanaticism, as some claim, adding that those who call climate advocates "fanatics" fail to look in the mirror before making such statements. Núñez noted that the physical foundations of climate change were established over 200 years ago, during the 19th century, when the science began developing. He pointed out that mid-19th-century research, even before the term "climate change" was used, indicated that carbon dioxide influences Earth's temperature significantly. This started with Joseph Fourier 200 years ago. Núñez stated that human-induced emissions have increased greenhouse gases by 50%. "If a blanket covers the Earth and keeps it warm, and we add another half-blanket, the temperature rises," he explained. "This is undeniable because it has already been proven that temperatures are rising. In Spain, the temperature has risen by approximately 1.9 degrees since the pre-industrial era, around 1850." Núñez warned that temperature is a measure of energy and indicates that the planet is more energetic. In the case of the Mediterranean Sea, it is a semi-closed body of water whose warming has been notably higher than that of oceans. For example, in Galician waters, Atlantic warming could be around 0.7 or 0.8 degrees, whereas the Mediterranean is twice as hot, at 1.3 to 1.4 degrees warmer. As a result, the warming of the Mediterranean represents a greater contribution of energy and moisture, leading to more violent phenomena, which is already being demonstrated. Núñez stated that several attribution studies on the 2024 flood show that it was between 15% and 20% more intense than it would have been in a scenario without climate change. The head of climatology at AEMET noted that torrential rain phenomena are not new, but they are now behaving differently, more violently, and more intensely, accumulating more rain in less time. Historically, flash floods, cold rains, and floods have occurred repeatedly in the Valencian Community and generally throughout the Mediterranean region of Spain. However, nothing compares to what is happening now. Just days before the second anniversary of the tragic October 2024 flood in Valencia province, another flood, named Adam, has revived the nightmare of that period. Rainfall records are historic: over 700 liters per square meter fell in Forna, Alicante, making it the third most intense rainfall episode in the last 40 years, behind the record of 1987 (817 liters per square meter in Oliva, Valencia), and the 29-O 2024 flood, which saw 773 liters per square meter in Turís, also in Valencia. However, the number of victims is fortunately lower: four deaths compared to 232 two years ago. Andreu Escrivà, a Valencian environmentalist and climate communicator, told RTVE News that society must get used to the idea that extraordinary phenomena are now commonplace. This territory is prone to flooding, but the current climate crisis intensifies existing phenomena. A "boiling Mediterranean" adds more energy to the system, which "must find an outlet" through more destructive storms. "It’s enough to connect the dots," he said. This summer, the Mediterranean has broken global records, reaching up to 33 degrees Celsius in the waters of the Balearic Islands. Experts had warned months earlier that conditions were ripe for floods like Adam. Adam is not an isolated incident. It reflects the new normality of climate change. Now, society lives in a "society of emergency" or "Es-Alert society," as described by Jorge Olcina, a professor of Geographic Analysis at the University of Alicante and a climatology teacher. This is a new era in which, especially along the Mediterranean coast, people live "on edge" waiting for alerts, with an accelerated pace of climate destruction causing "year after year" exposure to extreme weather events, whether floods, wildfires, or heatwaves. The loud beep of the alert message, a tool introduced in Spain only three years ago, has become part of daily life. It sounds simultaneously on thousands of mobile phones during weddings or football matches. Since 2023, over 500 messages have been sent, and this October alone, communities have issued 47 alerts, all related to heavy rain, according to data from Civil Protection accessed by RTVE. The flood alerts are inseparable from the 2024 flood, which caused unprecedented destruction in the Valencian region of L'Horta Sud. From that point on, floods began to be named by the State Meteorological Agency, previously only depressions were named, and the widespread sending of mobile alerts began after the controversial actions of the Valencian government in warning the population. The judge investigating the cause of that management said the "delayed" and "incorrect" sending of the alert is directly linked to many deaths. That traumatic episode became part of collective Spanish memory, especially Valencian, and any subsequent phenomenon is analyzed based on the management of the Rambla del Poyo flood. Have we learned from that flood? Andreu Escrivà is unequivocal: "No." He lists the lack of a prevention culture, adaptation culture, and substantial changes in urban planning. Jorge Olcina is not as pessimistic. He believes that unfortunately in Spain, we learn from disasters, and since 2024, "perhaps the biggest advancement has been in the management of emergencies and warnings." Since then, there has been a clear increase in the issuance of alerts.