El Nino strengthens: forecasts point to extreme weather conditions

A powerful El Niño phenomenon is developing in the tropical Pacific, threatening to bring extreme weather conditions across the globe in the coming months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The organization stated that ocean temperatures in key regions of the Pacific, critical for shaping global weather patterns, are already exceptionally high. These elevated temperatures are expected to intensify over time, leading to potential droughts, floods, and heatwaves in multiple parts of the world. According to the WMO, based on data from several weather services around the world, there is nearly a 100 percent chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027. This prediction comes amid rising concerns over the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events linked to the phenomenon. General Secretary of the United Nations Antonio Guterres emphasized the growing severity of the situation. He noted that "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes." Guterres added that scientific evidence confirms the planet is moving into uncharted waters, with these waters continuing to warm. He called for urgent climate action to mitigate the risks posed by the escalating phenomenon. The WMO does not use the term "super El Niño," which some climatologists have adopted, but instead describes the current phase as one of extremely high intensity. The organization bases its forecasts on calculations from multiple meteorological services globally. While climate change can amplify the effects of El Niño, it does not cause the phenomenon itself. El Niño begins with warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. According to WMO data, temperatures in this region are currently between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. In July and early August, some areas recorded underwater temperatures more than eight degrees above normal. As warm, moist air rises in this region, it influences global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation levels. This often leads to dry conditions in Australia, Indonesia, and southern Africa, while heavy rains typically hit the western coast of South America, eastern Africa, and parts of the southern United States. The impact of El Niño is not limited to specific regions. It affects weather systems globally, contributing to extreme weather events such as typhoons and tropical cyclones. In recent months, toxic haze from wildfires fueled by El Niño-related conditions has disrupted Southeast Asia, particularly affecting countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. In Central America’s Dry Corridor, El Niño has already triggered a severe food crisis, with the phenomenon expected to reach its peak toward the end of 2026. The WMO warned that the effects of El Niño on global temperatures could extend well beyond 2027, potentially surpassing previous records for warmth. Celeste Saulo, the WMO’s secretary-general, noted that if El Niño follows its current trajectory, it may become stronger than any previously recorded instance. She described the phenomenon as so intense that it would be "off the charts" compared to historical measurements. The WMO has issued seasonal forecasts indicating that El Niño is likely to maintain its strength throughout 2026 and into early 2027. As the phenomenon intensifies, governments and communities are urged to prepare for the potential impacts, including increased risk of natural disasters and disruptions to agriculture and water resources. The ongoing development of El Niño underscores the need for continued vigilance and preparedness in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. Scientists and policymakers are working together to monitor the situation closely and implement measures to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events.