29N forces Junts and ERC to redefine their electoral strategies against the clock

The early call for general elections on November 29 has forced Junts and ERC to rethink their electoral strategies under tight time constraints. With only eight weeks until the polls, both parties face the challenge of adapting quickly to a rapidly evolving political landscape. Junts had previously assumed that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez would conclude the legislative term, prompting its leaders, Jordi Turull, Míriam Nogueras, and Mònica Sales, to travel to Brussels earlier this week. However, the unexpected election date has disrupted these plans, compelling the party to reassess its position. Junts does not take responsibility for the current situation, asserting that the government has known for months that it lacks a majority to continue the legislature and chose to end it when it suited them best. Despite officially withdrawing its support for the government in October 2025, the election call now compels Junts to redefine its strategy. Following the last general elections, Junts found itself in a privileged position, leading it to negotiate with Sánchez while advocating for demanding terms, a stance that has since weakened during the legislative period. Nogueras emphasized in a video released by the party that Junts is the only group that has stood firm against the radicalism of both extremes and the confrontation between the two "Spains." This message aims to distinguish Junts from the PSOE and especially from Aliança Catalana, although the far-right Catalan party has confirmed it will not participate in the general elections. Sources within Junts reject outright the possibility of Carles Puigdemont becoming the candidate, stating such an option makes no sense at this stage, given uncertainty over his potential return in November. ERC finds itself in equally unstable conditions, marked by ongoing tensions between the leadership led by Oriol Junqueras and the Madrid-based faction controlled by Gabriel Rufián. These differences have been publicly visible for some time, with Rufián frequently contradicting the party's direction. Recently, Junqueras announced support for housing-related decrees, while Rufián insisted he needed to review them before making a decision. It is clear that Rufián will not lead a progressive plural national front combining the worlds of Sumar and Podemos with the leftist independence factions, as he attempted unsuccessfully. Instead, ERC appears ready to back Rufián as the candidate, as the party leadership has consistently stated throughout the months he has deviated from Junqueras’s line. Sources close to Rufián told EFE that he intends to "reflect" before deciding, emphasizing that he wants to hear everyone's views before committing. He reportedly plans to demand certain conditions from ERC to run again as the sole candidate. Trying to distance themselves from these developments, the Republicans expressed readiness for the ballot, confident that their ticket is the only one capable of defending Catalonia. However, the disappointment among Junqueras supporters was evident, as many of the achievements that justified their support for Sánchez have faded with the election call. Key issues such as the reform of the financing model and the forgiveness of the Autonomous Liquidation Fund (FLA), central to ERC, lack progress, and the transfer of Rodalies, the third pillar of agreements with the government, has not been completed. ERC ends the legislative period with practically empty hands in Madrid. For Catalan Socialists, the election call arrives at an unfavorable moment. The CEO (Catalan CIS) has predicted a decline in the PSC's appeal, particularly in Catalonia, where the management of the Government under Salvador Illa has become increasingly difficult. The socialist party faces challenges not only in Catalonia but also nationally, as Sánchez's re-election prospects depend heavily on performance in the region. The PSC plans to field Jordi Hereu as its candidate, despite declining poll numbers. The early election announcement has left Sánchez without the new autonomous financing that would have made Catalonia the third-largest recipient of state funds, as there is insufficient time for approval in Congress. This loss weakens the PSC's campaign argument, which relied heavily on the special financing agreement with ERC validated by Sánchez. ERC faces additional challenges as the withdrawal of funding hits harder, undermining promises made by Illa regarding an economic agreement for Catalonia. Without a new financing model, debt forgiveness for the FLA, or the collection of the regional income tax as promised by Oriol Junqueras, the situation worsens. Despite this, demographic forecasts suggest a positive outcome for Republicans, especially if Gabriel Rufián remains the candidate. However, Rufián's commitment to ERC is uncertain, as he indicated yesterday that he would begin a reflection period to explore his options, including joining the Front Ampla list. Aliança Catalana will not participate in the general elections, focusing instead on municipal and upcoming regional elections. This raises questions about how its voters will vote on November 29. Surveys indicate that Junts could lose 25 percent of its voters to Aliança in regional elections, though whether it can retain some of these voters remains unclear. Vox might benefit as well, sharing a border electorate with Aliança by offering maximalist migration policies. The Constitutional Court is expected to approve amnesty for Jordi Turull, potentially leading to the Supreme Court wiping the charges of all organizers of the illegal referendum of October 1st, including Carles Puigdemont, in the coming weeks. If this scenario unfolds, Puigdemont could return from exile. The opposition had long demanded that Sánchez call early elections, but the president had always responded that they would be held in 2027. The rejection of the Maricarmen decree by Junts gave Sánchez the justification to move forward. Initially, the plan was to wait until the controversy surrounding Ceuta subsided, but the recent developments changed the course. Until recently, Sánchez was reasonably optimistic about delaying the elections, but after Junts rejected the decree, he decided to proceed. The decision to hold elections was influenced by several factors, including the anticipated rise in inflation and the difficulty of passing measures to curb it in a Congress already anticipating elections. There was little room for negotiation with Puigdemont's party, as few concessions could be offered, and the Moncloa did not expect much from them following the incident. Sánchez's announcement of the elections served as his first campaign speech, setting the tone for future messages. His main argument focuses on countering the far right, using the slogan "right or rights." However, the collapse of the Maricarmen decree allowed him to introduce a new element into his discourse, targeting "elites," including property owners and large landlords, without alienating entrepreneurs or the Ibex-35. Sánchez faces the challenge of convincing his electorate that he offers more than what has been achieved in the past eight years. During his address, he highlighted the government's accomplishments, suggesting that despite unresolved problems, significant progress has been made. The government's weariness is the primary obstacle to mobilizing the left, essential for Sánchez to compete effectively, especially considering his disadvantage two months before the election. The legislative period, born from an unprecedented political transaction, ended due to the rejection of housing decrees by Junts. The government, sustained without budgets and marked by blockage and polarization, could not end otherwise. Junts acted in line with its electorate's interests and strategically to counter the drain of support towards Aliança Catalana. The Spanish left treated Puigdemont's party as a partner, despite its alignment with property owners and businesses. Pablo Iglesias expressed surprise at their actions, noting their right-wing leanings. A key indicator of the legislative period's impossibility is that Sánchez dared not submit even one budget proposal, knowing it would be defeated. The 2023 budgets remain in effect. A government can survive without a majority to pass certain laws, but it cannot govern without submitting its primary policy instrument to the Chamber. Corruption further complicates matters, with figures like Ábalos, Koldo, and Cerdán placing the PSOE in a crisis that cannot be dismissed as isolated incidents. The case involving Rodríguez Zapatero adds legal uncertainty affecting the moral reference point of the left. Following the disaster in Ceuta, the government was in turmoil, and its electorate was depressed. Sánchez identified the issue of evictions, lack of housing, and rising prices as a mobilizing factor for the left. The campaign threatens to reduce the complex issue to a populist narrative, pitting allies of rentiers, vulture funds, and speculators against parties protecting tenants and the majority population. Sánchez turned the election announcement into his first campaign speech, using an alarming message about power alternation. He benefits from his leadership strength and positive macroeconomic data. Feijóo starts with an advantage, but the opposition has been clumsy, and the PP has failed to offer positive alternatives. Today marks a return of the word to citizens. After so much paralysis, blockage, corruption, and polarization, it is time to say goodbye to a toxic legislative period.