Britain supplying 16% of Irish electricity, EirGrid says

Ireland’s national grid operator, EirGrid, has projected a significantly lower risk of power outages during the upcoming winter season, spanning from November 2 to April 4. The utility stated that the probability of insufficient generation to meet demand is currently much lower than in recent years. Specifically, the estimated loss of load expectation stands at fewer than 50 minutes for the entire five-month period. This represents a sharp decline from 1.1 hours recorded last winter, 3.6 hours the winter prior, and 21 hours two winters ago. These figures fall well below the three-hour benchmark established by the Department of Energy. Diarmuid Gillespie, EirGrid’s Director of System Operations, noted that the system possesses ample margins. On the day of the highest anticipated peak demand, the grid retains a 1,000 megawatt surplus. He described the current risk levels as very low, emphasizing that the statistical assessment indicates minimal likelihood of an actual electricity shortage. The improvement stems from substantial additions to the generation mix since the previous winter. New connections include 275 megawatts of gas-fired plants, 809 megawatts of wind and solar capacity, and 63 megawatts of battery storage. In total, 1,084 megawatts of new renewable and gas capacity have joined the grid, sufficient to serve more than 500,000 customers. Lumcloon Energy constructed the new gas facilities in Castlelost, County Offaly. These units are designed to activate rapidly when wind and solar output drops. Residential rooftop solar installations have also contributed to increased generation. As an emergency backstop, EirGrid maintains temporary generators in Dublin, Offaly, and Kerry. These units, commissioned in 2023, were deployed twice this summer to support supply. The Commission for the Regulation of Utilities recently announced that these temporary plants will remain operational until at least 2028 and 2029. Customers are expected to pay approximately 1.4 billion euros for these emergency generators over their lifetime. Additionally, turbines at the former ESB Tarbert power station have been converted from coal to heavy fuel oil. While rarely used, these units can be ordered to stand by as a final reserve. Ireland relies heavily on external energy links. The Republic and Northern Ireland import roughly 16 percent of their combined electricity requirements from Great Britain via three subsea cables crossing the Irish Sea. Data indicates that Britain supplied 15.8 percent of Irish electricity in the twelve months leading to July and 16.4 percent in 2025. The British National Energy System Operator is scheduled to release figures this week confirming no risk to these imports. Beyond electricity, the state depends on four electric interconnectors and one gas interconnector. There is currently no gas storage facility within the Republic, though plans exist for a floating gas storage terminal. A separate proposal for a private liquefied natural gas terminal in Tarbert, County Kerry, faces environmental objections. Weather conditions play a critical role in demand forecasting. A temperature decrease of one degree Celsius increases electricity demand by 55 megawatts. Last winter, peak demand remained below forecasts due to mild weather. For the current season, EirGrid estimates peak demand could reach a record 6,100 megawatts, surpassing the previous high of 6,024 megawatts set in January 2025. The grid operator holds the authority to request data centers to curtail usage if supply risks falling below demand, though this measure has not yet been implemented.