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Earlier volcano warnings could mean more false alarms – but they could also save lives
Australia🏛️ PoliticsCenter11 hr. ago

Earlier volcano warnings could mean more false alarms – but they could also save lives

A 2019 volcanic eruption at New Zealand's Whakaari/White Island killed 22 people and injured 25 others, marking the country's deadliest volcanic disaster in recent history. This event was part of a pattern of sudden eruptions over the past two decades, often occurring at night or when few people were present, making early warnings difficult. Similar incidents occurred in 2014 at Japan's Mount Ontake, which killed 63 people. Researchers propose using machine-learning algorithms to analyze seismic data and predict eruptions up to several hours in advance. While this technology could improve early warnings, it may also lead to false alarms. The study analyzed performance across multiple volcanoes and found that while false alarms could occur, the benefits of early warnings, potentially reducing preventable losses by 30–90%, may outweigh the risks.

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The Conversation (AU) logoThe Conversation (AU)IndependentCenter11 hr. ago
Earlier volcano warnings could mean more false alarms – but they could also save lives

A 2019 volcanic eruption at New Zealand's Whakaari/White Island killed 22 people and injured 25 others, marking the country's deadliest volcanic disaster in recent history. This event was part of a pattern of sudden eruptions over the past two decades, often occurring at night or when few people were present, making early warnings difficult. Similar incidents occurred in 2014 at Japan's Mount Ontake, which killed 63 people. Researchers propose using machine-learning algorithms to analyze seismic data and predict eruptions up to several hours in advance. While this technology could improve early warnings, it may also lead to false alarms. The study analyzed performance across multiple volcanoes and found that while false alarms could occur, the benefits of early warnings, potentially reducing preventable losses by 30–90%, may outweigh the risks.

Bias read (Center): The article presents a balanced discussion of the challenges and potential benefits of using machine-learning for volcanic eruption prediction. It does not take a clear ideological stance on the issue, nor does it emphasize any particular political agenda. The focus remains on scientific findings,风险

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