Two million beds are competing for the same 60 days: Croatian tourism's problem is not guests, but mathematics

Over the past six months, Croatia has faced a unique challenge in its tourism sector, two million beds competing for the same 60 days of peak season. The issue lies not with tourists, but with the mathematics of supply and demand. Since 2019, the number of tourist beds in Croatia has increased by approximately 300,000, yet the total number of nights spent by visitors has remained almost unchanged. This discrepancy has created a situation where the country continues to strive for record-breaking seasons while simultaneously managing overcrowding, mass tourism, and preserving local lifestyles. The phenomenon has sparked discussions among industry experts and analysts, who argue that the core problem stems from an imbalance between growing accommodation capacity and stagnant visitor numbers. On LinkedIn, Zoran Pejović, a tourism expert and advisor to the LHV administration, highlighted this disparity. He noted that while the number of tourist beds has risen significantly, the number of overnight stays has not followed suit. His analysis suggests that years when rooms filled themselves have come to an end, and Croatia is now trying to achieve all these goals at once: record numbers, less congestion, mass tourism, and minimal disruption to everyday life. Pejović’s observations reflect a broader debate within the tourism community. For years, he has written extensively on the topic, often during periods when similar questions resurface. He questions whether a “good” season can be measured solely by the number of nights booked or if other factors such as revenue should take precedence. He also raises concerns about how the tourism industry impacts local living conditions and whether the money generated can be used without fundamentally altering the way people live. In recent months, the discussion has intensified. Two years ago, a chef made headlines by stating that today's tourists have less money than local chefs and cooks. Another prominent figure claimed that for over four decades, the hospitality industry has been built specifically to cater to budget-conscious tourists. While both statements have drawn criticism, they highlight a deeper concern: the increasing pressure on local communities due to the influx of tourists. The structure of tourist accommodations in Croatia further exacerbates the issue. According to Bozo Radic, a contributor to the tportal, the majority of registered tourist beds are located in private homes rather than hotels. Out of approximately two million registered tourist beds, around ten percent are found in hotels, while more than one-third belong to private residences. This trend underscores the shift toward alternative forms of accommodation, which, while popular, contribute to the overall strain on seasonal availability. Since 2019, the total accommodation capacity has grown by roughly 300,000 beds, with nearly none of these new beds added to hotels. Meanwhile, the number of overnight stays has barely changed, reaching just under 108 million in 2019 and hovering around 110 million in 2025. In 2026, the number of nights appears to be stabilizing or even slightly declining. If we simplify the calculation and treat each bed equally, the average number of occupied nights per bed dropped from 64 in 2019 to about 55 in 2026—a nine-night decrease per bed. This means that virtually all of these beds compete for the same 60-day window, primarily in July and August, when private accommodations fill up completely. During the rest of the year, many remain empty. This pattern is not a flaw in the system, but rather a defining characteristic of its current state. Each new bed adds another competitor for the same limited period, generating additional income but also intensifying competition for already scarce resources.