Disrupted monsoons force India to face climate threat

Disrupted monsoons have forced India to confront the growing threat posed by climate change, as erratic rainfall patterns have led to severe flooding, landslides, and loss of life across multiple states. More than 100 people have died since late July due to extreme weather conditions linked to the monsoon season, which typically runs from June through September. The northeast state of Assam has been hit hardest, with over 120,000 people affected by flooding, while other regions including Kerala, Jammu and Kashmir, Bihar, and Jharkhand have also reported fatalities and widespread disruption. In New Delhi, urban areas have faced similar challenges, highlighting how the impact of these weather anomalies extends beyond rural communities. The issue lies not in the total amount of rainfall received, but in its unpredictable arrival. Longer dry spells are now interspersed with sudden, intense downpours that overwhelm rivers, drainage systems, and hillsides. This pattern has been exacerbated by El Niño, a climatic phenomenon that influences global weather patterns. However, experts argue that the underlying cause is a broader shift in climate dynamics affecting the Indian monsoon. Scientists caution against viewing the monsoon as entering a completely new phase, though they acknowledge significant changes in its behavior. Akshay Deoras, a senior research scientist with the UK’s National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the University of Reading, notes that active and break phases, periods of heavy rain followed by dry spells, have always existed within the monsoon cycle. However, the intensity of these phases has increased due to a warmer atmosphere capable of holding more moisture, leading to more extreme rainfall events. Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, a climate scientist and former secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, emphasizes that while average seasonal rainfall has remained relatively stable, the timing, intensity, and distribution of rainfall have undergone noticeable changes. He describes these shifts as fundamental, pointing to an increase in short-duration rainfall extremes, prolonged dry periods, and altered frequencies of monsoon-related weather systems. Rajeevan attributes these changes to factors beyond natural variability, suggesting a structural transformation in the monsoon system. Both rural and urban populations are vulnerable to these shifting patterns. Farmers rely heavily on the predictability of the monsoon for planting and harvesting, yet extended dry spells can hinder agricultural activities and reduce soil moisture. Conversely, sudden heavy rains can erode farmland and destroy crops. Urban centers face additional challenges due to rapid construction, which reduces permeable surfaces available for water absorption, thereby disrupting natural drainage processes. After prolonged dryness, hard, dry soil struggles to absorb water effectively, increasing the likelihood of river overflow and surface runoff rather than groundwater recharge. Experts warn that current infrastructure and flood management strategies are ill-suited to address the evolving nature of extreme weather events. Deoras highlights that many drainage systems and flood control measures are based on historical rainfall data, failing to account for the increasing frequency of high-impact, short-duration storms. While forecasting capabilities have improved, translating early warnings into effective responses remains a critical challenge. Authorities must ensure that timely alerts lead to immediate action to mitigate potential damage and save lives. As climate change continues to reshape weather patterns globally, the situation in India underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies that align with the realities of a changing environment. The monsoon, once a reliable seasonal feature, now demands a renewed approach to planning and preparedness, ensuring resilience against the unpredictable forces of nature.