Repealing the Appa while we're dealing with El Niño could be foolish.

The phenomenon of El Niño has already taken hold in Colombia, according to the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Environmental Studies (Ideam). The agency confirmed that conditions associated with El Niño are currently present in the country and warned that there is over a 95 percent chance the phenomenon will strengthen during the second half of 2026 and continue into the first quarter of 2027. If current projections remain unchanged, this event could rank among the strongest recorded since 1950. According to Ideam, monitoring of oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial Pacific, along with analyses from international climate monitoring centers, has confirmed the establishment of El Niño both in the ocean and atmosphere. International model consensus indicates that by September through November, the anomaly in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific could reach nearly 3 degrees Celsius above normal levels. There is a 63 percent probability that the phenomenon will surpass the 2-degree Celsius threshold, reaching the "very strong" intensity category between November 2026 and January 2027. This evolution follows persistent warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by consistent atmospheric changes aligned with the warm phase of the ENOS cycle (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). International organizations have corroborated Ideam's forecast. During the last quarter, entities such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and Ideam itself have noted a steady progression toward stronger warm conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Analyses conducted between March and June of 2026 show a progressive increase in positive sea surface temperature anomalies, rising subsurface heat content, and increasingly favorable atmospheric responses for the consolidation of the phenomenon. This alignment across different monitoring systems increases confidence in the scenarios projected for Colombia. Technical analyses from Ideam warn that, should the anticipated evolution continue, air temperatures could exceed normal climatological values, particularly in the Pacific, Andean, and Caribbean regions. These conditions would favor increased evapotranspiration and raise water demands for ecosystems and productive sectors. Reduced rainfall could lead to a progressive decline in river and stream flows, lower reservoir levels, and affect water availability for human consumption, agricultural activities, hydroelectric generation, and critical ecosystems. Ideam also cautioned that this scenario would increase the likelihood of vegetation cover fires, degrade air quality in certain regions, and negatively impact agricultural and livestock productivity. In response to these potential impacts, authorities have introduced measures aimed at promoting energy conservation and reducing the effects of El Niño. The Council of National Operation of Gas (CNO Gas) convened in Barranquilla to review energy security, with the Ministry of Mines and Energy and representatives from the energy sector discussing new regulations. One key announcement was the implementation of a tiered tariff system that rewards users who reduce their electricity consumption while increasing costs for those exceeding set thresholds. According to the intervention agent of Air-e, Jaime Mesa Buitrago, the goal is not to penalize consumers but to encourage responsible usage habits that contribute to maintaining service reliability. Authorities explained that the increase in electricity bills during August primarily responds to higher generation costs linked to the climatic phenomenon. The strengthening of El Niño necessitates greater reliance on thermal plants to support the electrical grid, which raises production costs compared to periods dominated by hydropower. Additional operational losses due to seasonal dry conditions further reflect in the tariff component. Despite this, Air-e assured that its tariffs remain competitive nationally, with an average cost per kilowatt-hour around 890 pesos, slightly below the national average of approximately 920 pesos. Meanwhile, the government has initiated contingency plans to address the anticipated extreme weather conditions. The National Unit for Disaster Risk Management and the Ministry of Health are coordinating territorial actions in anticipation of severe climatic conditions in the Pacific basin. The Ministry of Agriculture highlighted risks to food production and supply, including reduced water availability, pasture degradation, and heat stress in animals, which threaten rural communities' incomes. To assist farmers, the government has allocated nearly 244 billion pesos through six financial instruments and risk management incentives for agricultural producers. The government has also evaluated alternative energy solutions to mitigate water scarcity in reservoirs. The director of the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management, Javier Pava, stated that Colombia has significant photovoltaic potential to avoid energy shortages through solar power generation. In addition, the Ministry of Housing presented a territorial analysis indicating that 159 municipalities have suffered from cold fronts, while 558 face elevated risks of water supply shortages for residents. To address these challenges, the ministry signed an agreement with the Fund Colombia Potencia Mundial de la Vida to finance water supply, sanitation, and energy projects in vulnerable regions. The impact of El Niño extends beyond immediate environmental concerns, affecting food security and economic stability. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), agriculture absorbs 82 percent of damages and losses directly caused by droughts. El Niño cycles cause poor harvests, livestock losses, increased household debt, and migrations seeking food and water access. For example, during the 2015–2016 El Niño episode, more than 60 million people were affected globally, with humanitarian aid needs reaching five billion dollars across 23 countries. Current impacts are expected to worsen, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean, where a 70 percent probability of below-normal precipitation is predicted, with heightened risks in countries like Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Venezuela, and Colombia. In Colombia, 72 percent of national agriculture depends on rainfall, making the risk of agricultural damage, food availability, and food security alarming. It is estimated that El Niño could slow down the agricultural GDP by 0.9 percent, with crops such as rice, banana, sugarcane, cassava, and potato being the most affected, alongside dairy production. The reduction in agricultural, livestock, and fishery output increases pressure on food systems, limiting access to nutritious, culturally appropriate foods and reducing household incomes dependent on these activities, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations such as rural communities. Preventive actions are crucial to protect agricultural production and the livelihoods of communities, stabilize food consumption, and reinforce resilience against future crises. The modification introduced by Law 2294 of 2023 to Article 10 of Law 388 of 1997 elevates the protection of areas designated for food production to a second-level determinant of territorial planning, aimed at safeguarding rural soils with agricultural potential against pressures such as urban sprawl, agribusiness, land speculation, and extractive projects threatening national food security. As of the end of the previous administration, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported that 998,577 hectares had been declared protected under this designation across more than 55 municipalities in departments such as La Guajira, Antioquia, Córdoba, Cundinamarca, and others. Meteorological forecasts indicate that heavy rains will occur in several regions of Colombia, while the Caribbean coast will experience high temperatures and elevated thermal sensations. The Ideam predicts moderate to heavy rains in large parts of the country, particularly in the Caribbean, Andean, Pacific, Orinoquian, and Amazonian regions. Meanwhile, the Caribbean coast will face high temperatures and a heightened thermal sensation throughout the day. Over the next 24 hours, Colombia will maintain a meteorological outlook marked by strong precipitation across much of the territory. Some areas in the Caribbean and the center of the Andean region will see drier conditions. On the Colombian Caribbean Sea, especially in its central and western zones, moderate and locally heavy rains are expected during the night and early morning. In the San Andrés, Providencia, and Santa Catalina archipelago, light to moderate showers are likely, with higher intensity over the maritime area. In the Andean region, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. The most significant rains will focus on the north, east, and west of Antioquia, the north and south of Santander, Risaralda, the north of Norte de Santander, and the east of Boyacá, mainly during the night and early morning. Light to moderate rains are also expected in parts of Caldas, Quindío, the east and west of Cundinamarca, and the south and east of Huila during the afternoon and night. In contrast, large areas of Tolima, the center of Cundinamarca, the center of Boyacá, and the west of Huila will maintain dry conditions for most of the day. In the Pacific region, a largely cloudy environment with moderate to heavy rains will persist in wide areas of Chocó and the west of the Valle del Cauca. During the afternoon and night, these rains will also reach the west of Cauca and the center and west of Nariño, while the center and east of these two departments will see isolated and short-duration rains. The Ideam also forecasts moderate to heavy rains in parts of the Orinoquian and Amazonian regions, especially in Vichada, Arauca, Casanare, Meta, Guaviare, Guainía, Vaupés, and Caquetá. Additionally, the entity warned that maximum temperatures will be above normal in several departments of the Caribbean region and some inter-Andean valleys, contributing to a high thermal sensation during the afternoon. Finally, low concentrations of Saharan dust are expected over the eastern part of the Colombian Caribbean Sea during the night. In Bogotá, the city is expected to have a morning with partially to mostly