Growth less than 2.5% at current prices: Subhash Chandra Garg stands by GDP claim

Union Minister Piyush Goyal has sharply criticized the opposition and former officials for questioning the accuracy of India's recent GDP growth figures, accusing them of attempting to undermine public confidence in the economy. Speaking to reporters in New Delhi, Goyal denied allegations that the government manipulated data to present a misleading picture of economic performance. He emphasized that ministers do not fabricate statistics and warned that those with a negative outlook toward India's economic trajectory are harming their credibility. Goyal specifically targeted former finance secretary Subhash Garg, who has raised concerns about the validity of the 7.8 percent GDP growth recorded in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27. According to official data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on August 31, India's real GDP expanded by 7.8 percent during the April-June period, reaching an estimated Rs 81.36 lakh crore, compared to Rs 75.46 lakh crore in the same quarter of the previous year. Nominal GDP increased by 10.3 percent to Rs 88.27 lakh crore, up from Rs 80 lakh crore in the prior year. Real gross value added (GVA) rose by 8.2 percent to Rs 73.82 lakh crore. Goyal accused critics of failing to distinguish between different GDP calculation methods, suggesting that comparisons between the old and new series are invalid. He stated that the government's approach to GDP estimation involves updating methodologies and incorporating new data sources, which naturally leads to revisions. These adjustments, he argued, reflect improvements in statistical accuracy rather than deliberate manipulation. Subhash Garg, however, has challenged the legitimacy of the 7.8 percent growth figure, citing the revision of last year's GDP from approximately Rs 86 lakh crore to Rs 80 lakh crore. According to Garg, if the original figure had remained unchanged, the growth rate in current prices would have been closer to 2.6 percent. This discrepancy has sparked debate among economists and policymakers regarding the implications of switching to a new GDP series with a base year of 2022-23, replacing the previous one based on 2011-12. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has defended the revised figures, stating that the changes result from ongoing methodological updates and improved data collection techniques. Officials noted that the initial estimate for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 under the old series was Rs 86.05 lakh crore. Following the introduction of the new series in February 2026, this figure was adjusted to Rs 80.32 lakh crore and further revised to Rs 80 lakh crore after incorporating updated data, including the Index of Industrial Production and Producer Price Index. Critics argue that the shift in base years and subsequent revisions create inconsistencies in assessing economic performance. Garg highlighted that the change in GDP calculations affects the interpretation of growth rates, especially when considering current-price estimates versus constant-price measures. He expressed concerns about the magnitude of the revision and called for greater transparency regarding the rationale behind the changes. Goyal reiterated his stance that the 7.8 percent growth rate is a true reflection of India's economic resilience, attributing it to the efforts of its citizens and the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He dismissed criticism from those he described as "jobless individuals" who attempt to discredit the nation's achievements through media appearances. The upcoming release of GDP estimates for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026-27 on November 30, 2026, will provide further insight into the trajectory of India's economy.