Cuba’s economic freefall is hiding a national security threat just miles from Florida: report

Cuba’s deteriorating economy is raising fresh concerns over its potential role as a strategic asset for foreign powers, according to a new report from the America First Policy Institute. The report highlights how Cuba’s growing ties with countries like Russia, China and Iran could pose a national security risk to the United States, despite the island nation’s financial struggles. The report, titled The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Fight for the Western Hemisphere, argues that Washington has underestimated the geopolitical significance of Havana’s alliances. The report suggests that Cuba’s proximity to Florida, just 90 miles away, makes it a critical location for intelligence gathering and military coordination. It points to ongoing activities linked to China, including suspected intelligence facilities on the island. A June 18, 2026, analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted continued operations at Cuban sites capable of supporting signals intelligence collection. Previously, CSIS had identified four such locations, some of which may have connections to Chinese entities. Report co-author Melissa Ford Maldonado emphasized the credibility of these findings, stating that “there is a lot of credible evidence” of Chinese espionage efforts on Cuban soil. Cuba’s relationship with Russia is described as particularly close. Maldonado called the partnership between Moscow and Havana “increasingly intimate and reliable,” citing diplomatic and military collaboration. This includes Cuban nationals serving alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. The exact number of Cubans involved in the conflict remains disputed. A U.S. State Department document released on October 5, 2025, estimated that between 1,000 and 5,000 Cubans were fighting for Russia. Ukrainian officials have also raised alarms with U.S. lawmakers regarding Russia’s recruitment of Cuban citizens. However, Cuba has denied sending troops to Ukraine. In an October 11 statement, the Cuban Foreign Ministry claimed that the country was not involved in the war militarily and that it had prosecuted individuals accused of acting as mercenaries. Between 2023 and 2025, 40 suspects were brought to trial, with 26 receiving convictions. Despite these denials, Ukraine took further action by closing its embassy in Havana in October 2025. According to reports from The Kyiv Independent, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha accused Cuban authorities of failing to prevent widespread Russian recruitment of Cuban citizens. These tensions underscore the complex dynamics between Havana and other global actors, even as Cuba grapples with internal challenges. The report also addresses Cuba’s historical role in supporting U.S. adversaries. Maldonado pointed out that Havana has long engaged in activities contrary to American interests, including intelligence work and political influence campaigns. She argued that the current situation represents a continuation of this pattern, with Cuba leveraging its strategic location to benefit foreign powers. This raises questions about the effectiveness of U.S. policies toward Cuba, which have traditionally focused on human rights, migration and economic issues rather than national security threats. As the situation evolves, experts warn that Cuba’s vulnerabilities may be exploited by external actors seeking to gain leverage in the region. With the island’s economy in freefall, the government may find itself increasingly reliant on foreign support, potentially strengthening existing alliances. Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to face pressure to reassess its approach to Cuba, balancing humanitarian concerns with the need to safeguard national security interests. The coming months will likely see increased scrutiny of Cuba’s international engagements, especially as the geopolitical landscape continues to shift.