Critica tables monster $2.7B valuation for WA rare earths play

Critica Limited has unveiled a groundbreaking scoping study for its Jupiter rare earths project in Western Australia, projecting a pre-tax net present value (NPV) of $2.67 billion. The study, conducted using an eight percent discount rate, forecasts a pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 56 percent. The project involves a 14-year operation with an estimated $12.3 billion in sales revenue and $5.64 billion in pre-tax free cash flow. Annual EBITDA is projected at A$446 million. The Jupiter project, located 270 kilometers from Geraldton in the Mid-West region of Western Australia, plans an eight-million-tonne-per-year conventional open-pit operation. Over the mine's life, it targets 107.3 million tonnes of ore grading 1879 parts per million (ppm) total rare earth oxides (TREO). Indicated mineral resources make up 97 percent, or 104 million tonnes, with inferred resources accounting for the remaining 3 percent. Critica CEO Jacob Deysel stated that the Jupiter Scoping Study provides a clear technical foundation for the next phase of development. The planned output represents just six percent of Jupiter’s 1.7-billion-tonne resource, which grades 1700 ppm TREO. The company noted that the remaining 94 percent lies outside the current mine plan, allowing for resource conversion and mine-life extensions pending further work. Annual production of contained rare earth oxides in mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) is estimated at 8,300 tonnes, based on an overall recovery of 58 percent. The MREC basket includes neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium. The processing method uses a "beneficiation-first" approach combining magnetic separation and flotation to concentrate rare earths before hydrometallurgy. Testwork achieved a 14-fold TREO upgrade while rejecting up to 95 percent of feed mass, significantly reducing downstream plant requirements and costs. The model's base case assumes a gross MREC basket value of US$52.80 (A$81) per kilogram and 75 percent payability, using an exchange-rate assumption of 65 cents. Critica’s economic modeling incorporates the Australian Government’s Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive (CMPTI), offering a refundable offset of 10 percent of eligible Australian processing expenditure for up to 10 years. This could provide up to $264.1 million in benefits, contingent on eligibility and qualifying expenditure. Iron, gallium, and scandium have no base-case value, presenting potential upside. Critica has outlined subsequent steps, planning a prefeasibility study (PFS) from early 2027 to mid-2028, followed by a definitive feasibility study (DFS) through the end of 2029. These studies will involve drilling, resource conversion, and process optimization.