Could US airstrikes stop insurgency in Mali?

The U.S. is reportedly considering airstrikes against the al-Qaeda-linked militant group Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in Mali, marking a potential shift in the ongoing struggle against jihadist insurgency in the Sahel region. The move comes amid continued instability in the country, where JNIM has grown into one of the deadliest and most influential jihadist organizations in the area. With French troops having withdrawn and Russian involvement failing to curb the group’s expansion, the U.S. could become a key player in the conflict. JNIM, founded in 2017, has evolved into the most powerful jihadist force in the Sahel, uniting multiple Islamist groups under the banner of al-Qaeda. Its goals include establishing an Islamist order and displacing state institutions and Western influence. According to the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, JNIM was responsible for over 1,200 deaths in 2025, making it the second-deadliest terrorist group globally. The group has extended its reach beyond Mali into neighboring countries such as Burkina Faso, Niger, and even coastal states in West Africa, raising concerns about its broader regional impact. Despite the threat posed by JNIM, the U.S. government remains divided on whether to conduct direct military strikes. Proponents, including Sebastian Gorka, a senior counterterrorism advisor, argue that JNIM represents one of the most dangerous jihadist organizations in the world and that halting its advance is critical. However, the decision faces political hurdles, both within the U.S. administration and among Mali’s leadership. While some analysts suggest that U.S. involvement could help counterbalance the growing influence of JNIM, others caution against the risks of further destabilizing the region through foreign military intervention. Mali, which has faced repeated military coups since 2020, has increasingly turned toward Russia for support. After the withdrawal of French forces and the UN mission MINUSMA, the Malian government sought alternative partnerships, arguing that Russia might offer greater stability. However, experts like Tobias Rüttershof of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation note that Russia’s efforts have not yielded the desired outcomes, and JNIM has instead gained strength. This has led to a complex geopolitical landscape, with Mali balancing its relationships with both Western allies and Russian actors. The Malian government has expressed cautious optimism regarding potential U.S. involvement. Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop stated that there has been no official confirmation of planned airstrikes, but he emphasized that Mali is not passively awaiting external solutions. Instead, the government asserts that it relies on its own security forces and is committed to maintaining national sovereignty. Public sentiment in Mali is similarly mixed, with some residents expressing openness to any measure that could bring lasting peace, while others remain skeptical of foreign military presence, especially given the existing Russian footprint. Experts warn that while U.S. airstrikes could disrupt JNIM operations, they may also risk escalating tensions and fostering further radicalization. Abdoulmoumouni Abbas, an expert on countering extremism in the Sahel, cautions against overestimating the effectiveness of military interventions, citing previous experiences with U.S.-supported operations in neighboring countries. He argues that long-term stability requires addressing root causes such as poverty, governance failures, and lack of economic opportunity, issues that neither U.S. nor Russian involvement alone can resolve. As discussions continue, the future of the conflict in Mali remains uncertain. Whether the U.S. will proceed with airstrikes depends on internal debates within Washington and the willingness of Malian leaders to accept external military assistance. Meanwhile, the broader implications for regional security, international relations, and the resilience of local communities will likely shape the outcome of this evolving crisis. For now, the focus remains on the immediate challenge of containing JNIM’s growing influence and ensuring that any new developments contribute to rather than exacerbate the instability in the Sahel.