Could Trump's allies push Netanyahu into unity gov't without his far-right partners? - analysis

Voices within the inner circle of US President Donald Trump are advocating for the establishment of a broad, moderate Israeli unity government that excludes National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Some members of the administration are even floating the idea of a rotation agreement in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would serve as prime minister initially. This push comes as Trump prepares for the remainder of his term, with senior advisors arguing that realizing his ambitious Middle East plans requires a change in the composition of Israel’s government. The primary objective cited by these officials is the potential for a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, a prospect they deem difficult to advance while Ben-Gvir and Smotrich hold cabinet positions. Bill Ackman, a prominent supporter of Trump and the head of the hedge fund Pershing Square, publicly called on Sunday for the formation of such a government. In a social media post, Ackman argued that excluding the two far-right ministers would allow Israel to restore its international standing, expand the Abraham Accords, and improve relations with both major political parties in the United States. Ackman stated that the presence of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich causes enormous reputational damage to Israel’s global image and hinders its ability to advance key diplomatic objectives. While criticizing the two ministers, Ackman praised Netanyahu and his relationship with Trump, indicating support for Netanyahu remaining in office but with a different set of coalition partners. The pressure from Washington is occurring amidst existing friction between the two governments. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly frustrated by the pace at which Netanyahu is advancing Trump’s plan for Gaza. Additionally, US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack has disagreed with Israel’s strategy regarding Syria. Following Israeli strikes on a base in Syria’s northern Idlib province, Barrack denounced the attack as an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability. Officials around Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who maintain a better relationship with the Prime Minister, have expressed frustration over insufficient action regarding Jewish violence in Judea and Samaria and believe Israel could do more to strengthen the Lebanese government. Despite the internal push for a government shift, Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Tuesday after weeks of hesitation. This endorsement was made despite opposition from many of his closest advisers, who believed the president should stay out of the Israeli election. One Trump adviser described the president’s view of Netanyahu as knowing the devil he knows, noting that Trump has never worked with an Israeli prime minister other than Netanyahu and does not personally know the other candidates. An official described the endorsement as a strategic win-win for Trump regardless of the outcome. If Netanyahu wins or remains in power as caretaker prime minister, Trump could claim credit for rescuing him politically and use that leverage to press for concessions. Conversely, if Netanyahu loses and his opponents form a government, Israel’s new leaders would still have every incentive to cultivate good relations with Trump, rendering his endorsement of their rival a minor footnote. Vice President JD Vance declined to follow Trump’s lead when asked about the election. Vance stated that he is neither attacking nor endorsing Netanyahu, adding that the president’s endorsement is ultimately what matters. Vance, who recently endorsed former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán days before his election defeat, said he would no longer get involved in foreign elections. Sources indicate that Vance and other top aides became disillusioned with Netanyahu during the recent conflict with Iran. These officials believe Netanyahu’s pre-war assessments to the White House were mistaken, deepening questions about whether he remains the best partner for achieving Trump’s regional ambitions. Political dynamics in Israel reflect this uncertainty. A final poll published by Maariv shows the opposition bloc widening its lead to 54 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc has dropped to 48 seats. The poll found that 60 percent of respondents preferred a unity government if the October 27 election fails to produce a clear governing majority. Among those favoring a unity government, 33 percent wanted a candidate from the opposition bloc to lead it, while 19 percent preferred Netanyahu to lead it. In a head-to-head matchup for prime minister, Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot leads Netanyahu, with 49 percent support compared to 41 percent for the incumbent. Key figures in the potential opposition-led government remain hesitant. Both Eisenkot and former prime minister Naftali Bennett are currently opposed to serving under Netanyahu. American officials have not yet discussed the proposed framework with them. A government reliant on Ben-Gvir and Smotrich could struggle to make the difficult decisions required for a deal with Saudi Arabia, even if Netanyahu himself were willing. Riyadh maintains its own political demands, including tangible progress on the Palestinian issue. Consequently, some within Trump’s circle question whether a diplomatic breakthrough is achievable as long as Netanyahu serves as prime minister, leading to the emergence of the rotation-based unity government concept within the president’s team.