With Lula's victory, the Amazon is saved

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a historic fourth term as President of Brazil on Sunday, October 25, defeating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a decisive second-round contest. With 99.79 percent of the vote counted, the 80-year-old incumbent captured 51.76 percent of the ballots, edging out his 45-year-old rival by a margin of 3.5 percentage points. This victory translates to a lead of approximately four million votes, reversing the deficit Lula held just three weeks prior. The result marks a stunning political comeback, as no candidate who finished second in the first round of a Brazilian presidential election had ever won the subsequent runoff since the restoration of democracy in the 1980s. Lula will serve until January 2027, extending his tenure in office and positioning himself to remain in power until the age of 85. The path to victory was fraught with logistical hurdles earlier in the day. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered a two-hour extension of voting hours nationwide, keeping polls open until 7:00 p.m. local time. The decision followed complaints from both campaigns regarding transportation disruptions. Lula’s team alleged that public buses were removed from service in cities such as São Paulo and Salvador, while Bolsonaro’s campaign cited heavy rains affecting states including Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul. Approximately 159 million eligible voters participated in the election, which determined the leadership of Latin America’s largest economy. Lula’s triumph is widely viewed as a critical counterweight to the recent rightward shift across South America. Following the elections in Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, and Peru, Brazil stood as one of the few remaining left-leaning governments in the region. The outcome also complicates the geopolitical alignment of the continent with the administration of US President Donald Trump, who had expressed support for Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula, who stated that Brazil does not accept being anyone’s backyard, faces ongoing tensions with Washington, including trade tariffs imposed on various Brazilian products. The election results carry profound implications for environmental policy, particularly regarding the Amazon rainforest, of which Brazil holds 60 percent. Under Lula’s previous administrations, deforestation rates dropped significantly, falling from over 25,000 square kilometers in 2003 to roughly 4,500 square kilometers by 2012. During the tenure of Jair Bolsonaro, Lula’s predecessor and Flávio’s father, deforestation increased by 60 percent compared to the preceding average, reaching a 15-year peak with two billion trees cut. Environmental scientists noted that Lula’s current policies, combining satellite monitoring via the Deter system with strict enforcement by the environmental agency Ibama, have slowed the approach toward ecological tipping points. Ibama utilized a budget of $367 million in 2025 to deploy helicopters and arrest illegal loggers, while the National Bank for Economic and Social Development blocked over $127 million in loans to producers operating on illegally cleared land between 2023 and 2024. Flávio Bolsonaro, running under the banner of reducing the size of the state and enhancing security, had pledged to dismantle key protections for the Amazon. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup d'état. The elder Bolsonaro had hoped his son’s victory would facilitate his release and potential inclusion in the new government. Instead, the defeat leaves the Bolsonarist movement without its primary vehicle for national executive power, although the faction retains significant influence in Congress. The Bolsonarists won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies during the first round and govern seven of the nine Amazonian states. Lula’s political journey spans decades, beginning with his emergence as a union leader in São Paulo’s industrial suburbs in the late 1970s. Born into rural poverty, he lost a finger in a factory accident at age 17. He failed in three previous presidential bids in 1989, 1994, and 1998 before becoming Brazil’s first working-class president in 2002. He served two consecutive terms until 2011, stepping down due to constitutional limits. He returned to power in 2022 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro, who was later convicted of plotting a coup. In 2017, Lula was briefly imprisoned on corruption charges related to the Lava Jato operation involving Petrobras, but the Brazilian Supreme Court annulled those convictions in 2021, ruling that due process had been violated. Reactions to the result were immediate and celebratory among Lula’s supporters. In São Paulo, crowds gathered in the streets and outside hotels where the count was monitored. Reginaldo Lopes, a key ally, described the victory as Brazil rejecting fascism and protecting the rights of Black citizens, the poor, and LGBTQ+ individuals. Lula himself declared that the people took to the streets to defend their conquests. Meanwhile, Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, who had previously invited Flávio Bolsonaro to a bilateral meeting, had not issued a formal reaction to the loss as of the latest reports. Looking ahead, Lula faces the challenge of implementing social and legislative agendas within a Congress dominated by right-wing factions. His platform includes a goal of zero deforestation by 2030 and continued social welfare programs. The transition period will likely involve navigating complex diplomatic relations, balancing domestic economic interests with foreign pressures, and managing the ongoing legal and political fallout surrounding the Bolsonaro family. The outcome solidifies Brazil’s status as a major global player, possessing 90 percent of the world’s niobium reserves and significant deposits of rare earth elements, while maintaining sovereignty over the vast majority of the Amazon ecosystem.