Trade in AI parts offsets impact of war in Middle East; world trade grows 1.9% in first quarter

The global trade volume of goods rose 1.9% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The growth was seasonally adjusted and exceeded expectations, with the organization noting that trade activity surpassed projections during this period. A key factor contributing to the increase was the surge in trade involving components related to artificial intelligence (AI), which helped offset the negative effects of conflict in the Middle East. The WTO explained that the rise in global trade volumes was partly due to the continued demand for technologies enabling AI. This trend was particularly evident in categories such as office equipment and telecommunications, which saw a 44% year-on-year increase. Other sectors that recorded notable growth included minerals and other metals, up 27%, and general machinery, up 9%. These increases were attributed to the ongoing expansion of industries reliant on advanced technological infrastructure. In contrast, certain sectors experienced declines. Chemical products saw a decrease of 6%, while iron and steel dropped by 5%, and fuels declined by 3%. Despite these setbacks, the overall picture remained positive, driven largely by the robust performance of high-tech components and services tied to AI development. In North America, exports increased by 7% compared to the same period in 2025. However, U.S. imports fell by 10.7% due to the early delivery of goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. These adjustments reflect broader economic shifts influenced by policy changes and market anticipation. The price trends also showed variation. While fuel prices remained relatively stable over the past year, metal and mineral prices, excluding gold and silver, rose by 32% in the quarter. This increase was linked to heightened industrial demand, especially in regions experiencing rapid technological advancement. The WTO noted that the strong performance in the office and telecommunications sectors could be directly connected to the growing reliance on AI-enabled technologies. As businesses continue to integrate AI into their operations, the demand for specialized hardware and software components has surged, driving both production and trade volumes. Looking ahead, the WTO expects potential disruptions in commercial activities through the Strait of Hormuz to affect trade figures in the coming months. Although current data shows resilience, analysts caution that geopolitical tensions could introduce volatility in future reports. Meanwhile, the continued expansion of AI-related markets suggests that high-tech industries will remain a focal point for global trade dynamics. The rise in AI-enabled trade highlights the increasing influence of technology-driven economies on international commerce. As nations invest more heavily in digital transformation, the role of AI components in shaping global trade patterns is likely to grow further.