Four new 'axes' in the Council of Europe are changing political mathematics

The European Council is set to witness a significant shift in its political dynamics as four new prime ministers take their seats for the first time in this crucial decision-making body. This change comes after eight weeks since the last summit, during which the governments of four member states have undergone transformation, bringing nearly 15 percent of the total number of heads of government in the European Union into new roles. These changes occur at a particularly sensitive moment, as member states prepare for negotiations on the next seven-year budget worth around two trillion euros, energy policy, and key foreign policy issues. One question that has captured the attention of European diplomats is who will step into the role once held by Hungary's former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his long-standing resistance to European decisions.

Hungary is turning a new page under the leadership of Péter Magyar, who assumed office early in May following a convincing electoral victory. Unlike his predecessor, Magyar has already significantly improved relations between Budapest and Brussels, successfully unlocking billions of euros in frozen European funds that had been stalled due to disputes between the EU and Orbán’s administration. His government has also moved away from opposing Ukraine's accession talks with the European Union, further solidifying his reputation as a constructive and pro-European politician. A former Hungarian diplomat based in Brussels and a member of the European Parliament, Magyar is well-acquainted with European institutions and is not expected to adopt the confrontational style that characterized Orbán's relationship with the EU. However, questions remain about whether he will maintain certain aspects of Orbán's policies, such as a stricter migration policy and the continuation of a border fence built in 2015. Magyar plans to keep the fence and opposes EU quotas for distributing migrants, aligning him more closely with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. His first official visit after taking office was to Warsaw, indicating a potential alignment with the Visegrád Group.

Bulgaria's new prime minister, Rumen Radev, could potentially create complications regarding Ukraine. Radev, a former president who left office at the beginning of the year, founded his own party and won parliamentary elections. He has previously questioned European policy toward Ukraine, opposing increased military aid to Kyiv and asserting that Ukraine is doomed to defeat in its war against Russia. Some European diplomats fear that Sofia might become an obstacle to future sanctions packages against Moscow, especially as the EU plans to discuss them in the coming months. Despite these concerns, diplomats assess that Radev likely lacks both the political strength and interest to assume the role of the main European blocker that Orbán once held.

Slovenia's Prime Minister Janez Janša is returning to the European stage, marking his fourth term in office. Janša shares some political characteristics with Orbán, including conservative views, a critical stance towards media, and open sympathy for U.S. President Donald Trump. However, unlike the former Hungarian leader, Janša is one of the strongest European supporters of Ukraine. Potential conflicts with the rest of the Union could arise over the Middle East, as Janša has strongly aligned himself with Israel, lifting restrictions on Israeli officials such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir. This could position him among leaders who oppose potential European sanctions against Israeli officials.

Latvia's new prime minister, Andris Kulbergs, hails from the business world and took office following a political crisis caused by a series of incidents involving Ukrainian drones entering Latvian airspace. Although Kulbergs lacks extensive political experience, he has immediately affirmed a strong stance against Russia, emphasizing Latvia's commitment to NATO and the European Union. His approach is seen as pragmatic and focused on maintaining stability within the alliance while addressing regional security concerns. The presence of these four new leaders introduces a complex mix of perspectives and priorities, each potentially influencing the direction of European policy in different ways. As they take their seats at the European Council, the stage is set for a dynamic and unpredictable chapter in the ongoing evolution of European politics.