The Blues never dreamed of coming this far. The Cats are next in their sights

Carlton’s improbable journey to the finals has left fans stunned and opponents wary as the Blues prepare to face Geelong in an elimination final at the MCG on Friday night. After starting the season with a dismal 1-8 record and the departure of long-time coach Michael Voss, the Blues have turned their fortunes around dramatically. Under the leadership of interim coach Josh Fraser, who later secured the permanent role, Carlton has won 11 of their past 14 matches, culminating in a thrilling wildcard victory over Melbourne on Saturday night. That win, achieved despite conceding the first four goals of the match, has set the stage for a high-stakes showdown with the Cats, a team that has dominated most of its rivals in recent seasons. Graham Wright, Carlton’s chief executive, admitted he had not anticipated the team’s rise to the top eight. “Well, not really no,” Wright said after the win over Melbourne, when asked if he had ever imagined this team reaching the finals. “The wildcard gave us the opportunity, and it’s just week to week... you’ve won seven in a row, and then I suppose it becomes a little bit of a reality, but we still had to do a fair bit in the back seven [games].” The transformation under Fraser has been marked by a shift in style, moving away from reliance on individual stars toward a more balanced approach. Young players like Harry Dean and Jagga Smith have emerged as key figures, embodying the maturity and discipline that have become central to the team’s identity. The Blues’ defensive resilience and superior ball movement have been pivotal in their recent successes. Against Melbourne, they restricted the Demons to just 55 points and maintained possession nearly 100 times more than their opponents. This strategy contrasts sharply with the Voss era, when the team relied heavily on stars like Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Patrick Cripps, and Sam Walsh. Now, the emphasis is on collective effort, with players like Ben Ainsworth contributing significantly to the forward line and Sam Walsh continuing to dominate in the midfield. Despite the progress, the path to a premiership remains challenging. Carlton must navigate two more elimination finals, facing Geelong first and potentially another team in the subsequent rounds. For this opportunity, the Blues owe a debt to the AFL’s wildcard system, which allowed them to secure a finals spot despite a rocky start to the season. Their upcoming match against Geelong will test their newfound resilience, particularly as the Cats have historically been difficult to beat. Geelong coach Chris Scott has remained silent on the specifics of the club’s recent concussion-related issues involving Jake Kolodjashnij, though the financial penalties imposed by the AFL have cast a shadow over the team. Scott emphasized that he would not interfere in matters concerning Kolodjashnij’s future, stating, “I’m told, and I believe independently, that I just wouldn’t be any assistance, so I just don’t get in the way.” With the pre-finals bye behind them, the Cats are now focused on preparing for the challenge of facing a revitalized Carlton. The historical rivalry between the two teams adds another layer of intensity to the upcoming match. Carlton has enjoyed recent success against Geelong, winning four of their past five encounters and a pre-season practice match. However, the Cats remain a formidable opponent, known for their dominance over most teams except the Brisbane Lions in recent years. Premiership forward Brad Close acknowledged the challenge, saying, “We always talk about our best footy being able to beat anyone, so it’s about focusing on ourselves, but there will be some of their strengths we definitely have to take away.” Carlton’s ability to maintain possession and dictate the pace of the game has been a key factor in their recent performances. Over the past 10 games, they have averaged 47% possession, three percentage points higher than any other team. This statistic underscores the importance of winning the ball and disrupting the Blues’ chain of possession for the Cats. Defensive strategies will be crucial, particularly in countering Carlton’s ground ball game inside 50, which has traditionally troubled teams relying on intercept marking. Adam Cerra highlighted the role of the fans in fueling the team’s momentum, emphasizing that the Blues aim to “break” opponents by leveraging the energy of their supporters. “We play off their [fans’] energy, and we try and energise them through our footy,” Cerra said. The team’s philosophy of staying present and trusting the process has been instrumental in their transformation, with players like Cerra and leaders such as Patrick Cripps guiding the squad through high-pressure moments. As the countdown to the elimination final begins, the focus shifts to the tactical nuances that will determine the outcome. Match-ups like Shannon Neale versus Jacob Weitering and the defensive challenges posed by Tom Stewart and Lawson Humphries will be critical. While the Cats have shown resilience in previous encounters, the Blues’ current form and strategic adaptability suggest they are ready to challenge the status quo. With the MCG set to host a tense and electric atmosphere, the stage is set for a defining moment in Carlton’s quest for a premiership.