Rejoining the customs union, once considered a viable option to mitigate the economic damage of Brexit, is now viewed as insufficient to address the broader consequences of the UK’s departure from the European Union, according to recent research. The findings, shared with The Guardian, reveal that the UK’s exports to the EU have declined by 12% since Brexit, with the bulk of this drop attributed to the UK’s exit from the single market. Economists John Springford and Anton Spisak of the Centre for European Reform argue that the regulatory complexities introduced by Brexit—such as new certification processes and compliance checks—have had a far greater impact on trade than the traditional customs barriers. These changes have disproportionately affected key sectors, including travel, finance, insurance, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and agrifood, which have experienced declines ranging from 7% to 16%.
The research underscores that the benefits of rejoining the customs union would be limited. While it would ease some administrative burdens by eliminating the need for firms to navigate complex “rules of origin” for tariff-free trade, it would offer little relief to the services sector, which remains the UK’s largest export category. Moreover, rejoining the customs union would prevent the UK from pursuing independent trade agreements with non-EU nations, as members of the union must adhere to EU tariffs. The study warns that any attempt to recover the economic losses incurred from Brexit would require deeper integration with the EU, potentially involving reentry into the single market or even full EU membership—a path fraught with political and institutional compromises.
These findings come amid growing internal divisions within the Labour Party, where several potential leadership contenders have expressed openness to closer ties with the EU. Keir Starmer, the current leader, has maintained a firm stance against rejoining the single market or customs union, citing Labour’s manifesto pledges. However, figures such as Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham have suggested that reintegration with the EU might be necessary for long-term economic stability. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats initially supported rejoining the customs union but have shifted their position, advocating instead for reentry into the single market. This evolving landscape reflects a broader debate within British politics about the future of the UK’s relationship with the EU.
The economic toll of Brexit extends beyond trade statistics. According to The Independent, the financial cost of Brexit has reached £30.9 billion, with the UK having paid approximately £9.4 billion during the transition period and an additional £16.2 billion by December 2025. The long-term economic impact is equally severe, with studies suggesting that UK GDP per capita is between 6% and 8% lower than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU. Researchers from the US National Bureau of Economic Research note that the cumulative effect of Brexit has been gradual, with initial uncertainty and rising trade barriers playing a central role in the economic slowdown. Compared to other developed economies, the UK has lagged behind in post-Brexit performance, raising concerns about its competitiveness in the global marketplace.
The political fallout of Brexit has also been profound. Since the 2016 referendum, six prime ministers have resigned, reflecting the instability and complexity of navigating the UK’s exit from the EU. The situation has been exacerbated by external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and global supply chain disruptions, which have further complicated the UK’s economic recovery. The political uncertainty has not only affected governance but has also eroded public confidence in the decision to leave the EU. As noted by former Labour leader Neil Kinnock, many citizens now recognize the negative impact of Brexit on their daily lives, including higher living costs, reduced opportunities for young people, and diminished national security.
Civil servants and policymakers have begun to call for a renewed discussion on the UK’s relationship with the EU. Philip Rycroft, the permanent secretary of the Department for Exiting the EU, has urged political leaders to engage in a national debate on the UK’s future with the bloc. He argues that Brexit is not yet finished and that the UK must consider rejoining the EU to secure long-term economic and strategic advantages. His remarks resonate with a growing sentiment within the Labour Party, which has seen increasing pressure to adopt a more flexible approach to EU relations. However, this shift is met with resistance from parties such as Reform UK, which remains staunchly opposed to any form of reintegration with the EU.
The social and cultural implications of Brexit are also evident. A poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations reveals that a majority of Britons believe Brexit has had a negative impact on their lives. Over 57% of respondents feel the UK was wrong to leave the EU, with many citing the deterioration of economic conditions, increased costs of living, and the erosion of national identity. Younger generations, in particular, appear to be more inclined toward rejoining the EU, with 70% of those too young to vote in 2016 expressing support for reintegration. This generational divide highlights the deepening societal rift caused by Brexit and raises questions about the sustainability of the UK’s current trajectory.
As the UK prepares for its next major diplomatic engagement with the EU, the debate over the future of the UK-EU relationship is intensifying. With the upcoming EU summit in July, political leaders will face mounting pressure to propose concrete strategies for improving trade relations and addressing the ongoing economic challenges. Whether the UK will pursue a more integrated approach with the EU or continue on its current path remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the legacy of Brexit continues to shape the political, economic, and social fabric of the United Kingdom, with its consequences likely to be felt for decades to come.
6 reports
The Guardian (UK)IndependentCenterFactual 95Objective 8516 days agoThe article examines the symbolic elements of Brexit through five key issues from the 2016 referendum. One major example is the Nissan Sunderland factory, which became a focal point during the debate over Brexit. Pro-Brexit supporters saw it as a symbol of British manufacturing strength, while Remain advocates feared losing access to the EU market. Despite promises of financial support from the UK government, including £61 million and later £101 million in state aid, the factory's production dropped significantly from 507,000 cars in 2016 to 273,000 in recent years. While factors like the pandemic, global economic shifts, and internal management issues have contributed to this decline, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit—particularly the risk of 'no deal' tariffs—has had a lasting impact. Recent developments, such as a potential partnership with Chinese automaker Chery, offer some hope for the factory's future.
Bias read (Center): The article presents a balanced view of the situation around the Nissan Sunderland factory and Brexit, highlighting both pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit perspectives, as well as the economic impacts and uncertainties faced by the factory. There is no clear ideological slant in the framing of the story,而是
Why these scores (Factual 95 · Objective 85): High factual accuracy with specific details about Nissan and funding. Slightly biased toward presenting Brexit as divisive but remains largely neutral.
The Guardian (UK)IndependentCenterFactual 95Objective 8518 days ago Rejoining customs union would not fix damage caused by Brexit, research findsResearch conducted by economists John Springford and Anton Spisak from the Centre for European Reform indicates that Brexit has reduced UK exports to the EU by 12%. The study suggests that rejoining the customs union would address only a small portion of this decline. The report highlights that the most significant impacts stem from regulatory changes rather than customs barriers, affecting sectors like travel, finance, insurance, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and agrifood.
Bias read (Center): The article presents findings from an independent research group without overtly favoring any political side. It reports on economic data and expert analysis without using emotionally charged language or selectively omitting perspectives. The focus is on empirical results and their implications, not
Why these scores (Factual 95 · Objective 85): Well-supported claims based on research from the Centre for European Reform. Objective in presenting findings without overt bias.
iNewsIndependentCenterFactual 90Objective 8015 days agoA recent poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), using data from YouGov and Mandate, indicates that a majority of Britons believe Brexit has had a negative impact on various aspects of life, including the cost of living, immigration, and opportunities for young people. The survey found that 57% of respondents believed the UK was wrong to leave the EU. The findings come amid calls for the UK to rejoin the EU, highlighted by a protest in London marking the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum. Former Labour leader Lord Neil Kinnock criticized Brexit as a 'disaster,' citing economic harm and reduced international standing. The poll also revealed widespread concern over the effects of Brexit on daily expenses, the economy, and youth prospects.
Bias read (Center): The article presents a balanced view of the poll results, quoting both the findings and perspectives from various individuals, including critics of Brexit such as Lord Neil Kinnock. It does not exhibit overtly biased language or selective sourcing, maintaining neutrality in presenting the data and a
Why these scores (Factual 90 · Objective 80): Relies on a reputable poll and presents findings objectively. Mentions of protests adds context without taking sides.
The IndependentIndependentCenterFactual 90Objective 7522 days agoA former senior civil servant involved in the UK's Brexit process has urged politicians to reconsider Britain's relationship with the EU, suggesting that 'Brexit is not done.' He argues that global developments such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and economic consequences of leaving the single market necessitate a new debate on whether the UK should rejoin the EU.
Bias read (Center): The article presents the views of a former civil servant without overtly favoring any political side. It includes direct quotes from the individual and references economic data from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), providing balanced context without apparent ideological framing.
Why these scores (Factual 90 · Objective 75): Factual claims align with known information about Rycroft and OBR estimates. Tone leans slightly toward supporting reconsidering Brexit.
The IndependentIndependentProgressiveFactual 90Objective 7013 days ago The damning cost of Brexit – a decade on from the EU referendumThe article examines the economic and political consequences of Brexit ten years after the EU referendum. It highlights the financial costs associated with Brexit, including a £30.9 billion payout to the EU under the withdrawal agreement, which includes payments made during the transition period and future obligations. The piece also discusses economic impacts, citing research suggesting a 6-8% decrease in UK GDP per capita due to Brexit, with some models estimating an upper bound of 11%. The article references criticism of the initial pro-Brexit promises, noting that many voters now feel the anticipated benefits have not materialized.
Bias read (Progressive): The article frames Brexit negatively, emphasizing economic decline and unfulfilled promises while quoting critics like Labour peer Neil Kinnock and referencing research that highlights negative economic outcomes. The tone suggests skepticism toward Brexit and aligns with perspectives critical of the
Why these scores (Factual 90 · Objective 70): Accurate figures on financial costs and quotes from Kinnock. Language is more emotionally charged, especially in describing Brexit as 'garbage'.
ReutersIndependentCenterFactual 85Objective 8013 days agoThe article examines the economic impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom ten years after the referendum. It highlights various challenges faced by the UK economy since the decision to leave the European Union, including changes in trade relationships, labor market dynamics, and overall economic performance. The piece discusses both positive and negative outcomes, reflecting on how Brexit has shaped the nation's economic landscape over this decade.
Bias read (Center): The article presents a balanced view of the economic effects of Brexit, discussing both positive and negative impacts without showing clear bias towards either pro-Brexit or anti-Brexit perspectives. It does not use loaded language or selectively present information to favor one side over the other.
Why these scores (Factual 85 · Objective 80): Generalized reporting with no specific claims. Factual content is plausible but lacks detailed sourcing. Neutral tone overall.
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