Tuesday night briefing

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost his parliamentary majority following the final count of votes in Tuesday’s legislative election, leaving the country without a clear governing coalition. The Central Elections Committee confirmed on Thursday that neither the ruling right-wing bloc nor the opposition camp secured the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. Netanyahu’s Likud party remained the strongest single force in parliament with 27 mandates, down five seats from the previous term. His broader coalition of right-wing, far-right, and religious parties totaled 53 seats, a significant decline from the 64 seats held in 2022. The opposition bloc, led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, gathered 48 seats, falling short of the threshold. Arab parties achieved a historic result, winning a combined 19 seats, nearly doubling their representation from 2022. The election took place on October 27, 2026, marking the first regular parliamentary vote since November 2022. It was the first time since 1988 that an Israeli government completed a full four-year legislative term without early dissolution. Approximately 7.3 million eligible voters participated, resulting in a turnout rate of 77.7 percent, the highest recorded since 1999 according to some reports, though the election commission cited figures indicating it was the highest since 1973. Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. local time and closed at 10:00 p.m., with initial projections released around 9:00 p.m. The final official tally, including double-envelope ballots, was published on Thursday evening. Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, who has served as prime minister almost continuously for 17 years, faces a precarious political future. While his Likud party retained its status as the largest single party, his alliance failed to command enough support to form a government independently. His main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, leads the centrist Yashar party, which won 21 seats, making it the second-largest party in the Knesset. Other opposition parties include Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad with 12 seats, Yair Golan’s Democrats with eight, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu with seven. The Arab sector saw a surge in participation, with the Joint List winning 11 seats and the Islamist Raam party securing eight. Analysts attributed the high Arab turnout to a backlash against four years of governance by a far-right national security minister, citing increased crime rates, perceived neglect in policing, and rising racism following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and subsequent war in Gaza. President Isaac Herzog is tasked with determining which party leader receives the mandate to attempt forming a government. He is expected to hold consultations with party leaders in the coming days. Despite the mathematical necessity for one side to court Arab support, such cooperation appears unlikely. Eisenkot has categorically excluded direct cabinet participation by Arab parties. He stipulated strict conditions for potential allies, requiring them to sign a declaration affirming Israel’s Jewish and democratic character, accept universal military service, and designate the Hamas as a terrorist organization. These demands create significant hurdles for coalition talks, given the ideological differences within the fragmented opposition. Netanyahu dismissed media predictions that suggested his party would lose ground, claiming in a statement that Likud was the largest political party in Israel and that media narratives had attempted to undermine voter confidence. He urged the formation of a strong right-wing government. Conversely, Eisenkot stated that the public voted against the continuation of Netanyahu’s leadership, calling for his withdrawal from politics. Before the election, Netanyahu engaged in aggressive campaigning, posting images of nuclear explosions over Tel Aviv on social media to warn of existential threats from Iran. He quoted tech entrepreneur Yuval Bloomberg regarding the danger posed by Iranian nuclear capabilities and warned that internal debates over conscription and other issues were distractions compared to the threat of a "second Holocaust." Eisenkot criticized these tactics as hysterical fear-mongering and lies, arguing that Netanyahu failed to achieve war goals against Iran. A Shin Bet investigation is currently underway into allegations that foreign entities, potentially including Qatar and Turkey, funneled funds into Israel to influence voter turnout in the Arab sector. Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg directed Shin Bet Director David Zini to probe the suspected interference. The committee affirmed that the integrity of voting at polling stations was maintained. The official results show United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit entering with seven seats each, while the Religious Zionist Party and Shas entered with six seats each. Smaller parties such as Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists-Economic party did not cross the electoral threshold. The political landscape remains unstable, with analysts suggesting that if no compromise is reached during the upcoming coalition negotiations, Israel could face another election. The fragmentation of both the right and center-left camps means that any government formation will require complex alliances. The record-breaking turnout indicates deep political engagement among Israelis, particularly in the Arab community, which now holds a pivotal position in the balance of power despite facing barriers to formal coalition membership. The outcome leaves Netanyahu’s long tenure hanging in the balance, dependent on whether he can prevent his rivals from assembling a viable alternative government.