Bulgaria's president leads after by-election results, but likely to face a run-off

Bulgarian President Iliana Iotova leads in early exit polls for the presidential election held on Sunday, October 25, but likely faces a second round against conservative challenger Andrey Gyurov. Neither candidate secured the absolute majority required to win outright in the first ballot. According to parallel vote counts, Iotova received slightly more than 35 percent of the votes, while Gyurov garnered approximately 32 percent. The margin between the two candidates is significantly narrower than pre-election surveys had predicted. Pollsters had projected over 40 percent for the incumbent president and just over 28 percent for her opponent. If these results are confirmed, the two will compete in a runoff scheduled for November 1. The third-place finisher was Kostadin Kostadinov, representing the nationalist and pro-Russian party Revival. He captured roughly 13 percent of the vote despite an intensive campaigning effort. A total of 27 candidates participated in the election, with approximately 6.5 million Bulgarians eligible to vote. Turnout was notably low, with one survey institute reporting participation at 22.2 percent, described as a record low for such elections. Official preliminary results are expected on Monday, with final figures anticipated within 48 hours of the polling stations closing at 20:00 local time. Iotova assumed the highest office in the country at the end of January after her predecessor, Rumen Radev, resigned the presidency to run in early parliamentary elections. Radev subsequently became Bulgaria’s prime minister. Before entering national politics, Iotova served as a member of the European Parliament from the Socialist Group. She is supported by the sole ruling center-left party, Progressive Bulgaria, led by Prime Minister Radev, as well as the traditionally pro-Russian Bulgarian Socialist Party. Her political stance includes opposition to weapons deliveries to Ukraine and advocacy for a rapid peace resolution in the ongoing conflict. Andrey Gyurov, a 50-year-old economist and former interim government head, runs as the candidate for the pro-Western opposition bloc. He is backed by the reform-oriented liberal-conservative alliance Democratic Bulgaria and the opposition party We Continue the Change. Gyurov has positioned himself consistently pro-Western and opposes decisions made regarding Ukraine without broader European consensus. His campaign emphasized the need for Bulgaria to maintain a firm Western orientation on NATO’s eastern flank. The election took place against the backdrop of heightened regional tensions due to the war in Ukraine, which is located several hundred kilometers from Bulgaria. In recent weeks, four merchant ships were reportedly hit by drones off the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. Additionally, antennas belonging to the satellite internet service Starlink, considered a vital component of Ukrainian defense infrastructure, were set on fire near the capital, Sofia. These incidents have added a significant foreign policy dimension to the upcoming runoff, forcing voters to decide whether the southeastern EU and NATO member should strengthen its alignment with the West or pursue a different diplomatic path. Discrepancies exist among the various polling institutes regarding the exact percentages. One independent institute, Europe Elects, calculated Iotova’s share at 34.2 percent based on an 82 percent count, placing Gyurov at 31.9 percent and Kostadinov at 12.7 percent. Another institute, Mjara, reported Iotova at 35 percent and Gyurov at 31.9 percent. Earlier projections by pollsters had suggested a larger gap, with Iotova leading by a wider margin. The unexpected closeness of the race has raised questions about how many additional votes Gyurov can mobilize for the second round and where the ballots of eliminated candidates will ultimately fall. The voting process began at 07:00 local time on Sunday. Exit polls conducted by two research institutes immediately after voters cast their ballots indicated the tight race. The Bulgarian electoral system requires a candidate to secure more than 50 percent of the valid votes in the first round to avoid a runoff. Since neither leader achieved this threshold, the decision will rest with the electorate again next week. The political landscape in Bulgaria has been characterized by a persistent tug-of-war between Western integration and historically deep-rooted pro-Russian sentiments, making this contest a symbolic test of the nation's future direction. Observers noted that both left-wing and right-wing challengers to Iotova focused on critical accents toward the current government, including references to the handling of the Ukraine crisis. The outcome of the November 1 runoff will determine who holds the presidency for the next five years. While Iotova retains the advantage of incumbency and the backing of the governing coalition, Gyurov’s performance suggests a substantial base of support among voters dissatisfied with the current administration's foreign policy approach. The final official certification of the first-round results will confirm the candidates advancing to the decisive stage of the election.