Sarah Tacke: Economist Kevin Kühnert is making his rounds

The Left Party has become the largest political party in Berlin based on membership numbers, surpassing the Greens with over 18,000 members. This marks a significant shift in the city's political landscape ahead of the upcoming state election on September 20. According to Bjoern Tielebein, the regional head of the Left Party, the party counted 17,843 members as of June 30, which represents an increase of more than 2,000 compared to the previous year. The number has since grown further to 18,338, with approximately 20 new members joining daily. Tielebein noted that the party is becoming younger and more female, indicating continued growth momentum heading into the election campaign. The Greens, who previously held the top position in terms of membership, have seen a decline. As of June 30, they had 17,513 members, down by around 600 or 3.4 percent compared to the same period last year. However, their spokesperson mentioned that there is currently a positive trend emerging since the start of the election campaign. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which had been the largest party in Berlin for many years, did not provide current figures. At the beginning of the year, they listed 17,673 members. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) reported 12,159 members as of June 30, which is a decrease of 272 or 2.2 percent compared to the previous year. According to Dirk Reitze, the regional head of the CDU, this fluctuation is typical. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) saw a slight increase in its membership, rising to 2,084 from 1,884 within a year. Conversely, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) experienced a decline, with 3,370 members as of June 30, down by 274 or 7.5 percent compared to the previous year. The newly formed alliance Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) showed substantial growth, increasing its membership from 292 to 1,090 within a year. In addition to these developments, recent polls indicate a shifting political landscape in Berlin. One poll suggested that the CDU would lead slightly ahead of the Left Party in the upcoming election, with the AfD close behind. Another survey indicated that the Left Party could gain two percentage points, reaching 21 percent, while the SPD continues to lose ground. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of the electoral race. The issue of the expropriation of large property companies has emerged as a central topic in the Berlin election campaign. Since 2021, nearly 58 percent of Berlin residents supported the expropriation of major real estate firms, with majority support in eleven of twelve districts. Although implementation has been blocked, the political pressure remains high due to the unfulfilled public will. Now, five weeks before the election, the question of whether a possible left-wing coalition comprising the Left Party, the Greens, and the SPD can succeed looms large. The SPD and the Left Party both consider the expropriation issue a red line, albeit from different perspectives. The SPD’s leading candidate, Steffen Krach, stated he would not join any coalition that made expropriation a condition. In contrast, the Left Party’s leading candidate, Elif Eralp, emphasized that the issue would be discussed during coalition negotiations. The former governing mayor, Franziska Giffey (SPD), had previously dissolved a potential coalition after the 2023 repeat election, choosing instead a junior partnership with the CDU, a decision some believe was influenced by the expropriation debate. Despite these challenges, the Left Party appears poised to take a stronger position in coalition talks, given its current standing in opinion polls. However, it would still need the support of the SPD to form a government. The ongoing discussions surrounding the expropriation issue continue to shape the political discourse in Berlin, influencing voter preferences and strategic alliances among parties.