‘Battle for the center’: Large majority of Israelis already know how they’ll vote — poll

A large majority of Israelis have already decided whom they will vote for in the upcoming October 27 national elections, according to a recent poll conducted by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI). The survey, carried out this month, revealed that 53% of respondents are “completely sure” about their choice, while an additional 29% are “fairly sure.” Only 14% remain undecided, and 4% stated they will not participate in the election. The findings highlight a growing polarization within Israeli society, particularly among Jewish voters. Among those identifying as left-leaning, 71% are certain about their preferred candidate, whereas 58% of right-wing voters share the same level of certainty. Centrists, however, lag behind, with only 44% expressing confidence in their decision. This suggests that the electoral battle is increasingly concentrated around the center, where political uncertainty and shifting alliances may play a decisive role. Comparing the current data to a similar survey from July 2025, there has been a slight but noticeable movement toward the right. Sixty-six percent of Jewish respondents now identify as right-wing, up from 63% a year earlier. Conversely, the percentage of Jewish voters who consider themselves exactly in the center increased from 10% to 13%, while the proportion of left-leaning voters dropped from 22% to 19%. Notably, only 3% of Jewish respondents described themselves as left-leaning, with none identifying as far-left. Arab voters, meanwhile, show a different pattern. About half of them continue to identify as left-leaning, consistent with previous surveys. However, fewer than one-fifth of Arab respondents expressed confusion about where they fit politically, a decline from 21% in the prior survey to 15% this time. This indicates some degree of clarity or alignment among Arab voters despite ongoing challenges related to representation and inclusion. Political preferences among respondents reveal a complex landscape. When asked about the type of coalition they would prefer in the next Knesset, a plurality—27%, opted for a “change bloc” government that includes Arab parties. An additional 8% supported a “change bloc” without Arab participation. The term “change bloc” refers to the group of Zionist parties opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which has become a focal point in the political discourse. Other notable responses include 16% favoring a right-wing bloc aligned with the current ruling coalition, and 14% supporting a coalition that includes centrist parties alongside the existing government. Sixteen percent of respondents advocated for a broader coalition encompassing elements from both the current coalition and the “change bloc,” excluding Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties. Eight percent preferred a left-right coalition that excludes Haredim but includes Arabs, while 5% favored a coalition including Haredim but excluding Arabs. The remaining 6% did not specify their preference. The survey also uncovered varying priorities among voters. Security concerns ranked highest, with 28% citing it as their primary concern. Other key issues included the relationship between the government and the judiciary (18%), Israel’s progress as a more liberal state (15%), and the promotion of unity and reduced internal conflict (13%). The remaining 26% of voters did not clarify their main priority. Right-wing voters emphasized security and government-judicial relations, with 40% and 30% respectively highlighting these as critical factors. Those prioritizing the latter issue showed a strong inclination toward supporting a right-wing bloc, indicating a potential alignment of interests between security-focused policies and nationalist agendas. As the election approaches, the political landscape continues to evolve, shaped by shifting voter sentiments and strategic considerations. With many Israelis already committed to specific candidates or coalitions, the focus of the campaign will likely intensify on the central electorate, where the outcome could determine the direction of the country’s future governance.